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Informing the Iegislative debate sinee 1914
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January 28, 2025
Fire Weather: Background and Forecasting
Fire weather refers to conditions that influence whether a
fire ignites, how it behaves, and how it can be contained.
Record-breaking wildfires, especially in the western United
States, continue to cause loss of life and property damages
estimated in the billions of dollars. Congress continues to
show interest in supporting fire weather forecasting,
monitoring, communication, and research and may consider
whether, and if so how, to alter federal agency roles,
funding, and activities related to fire weather to further
protect U.S. lives and property.
Congress has authorized the Secretary of Commerce, acting
through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA's) Administrator, to forecast
weather and issue storm warnings (15 U.S.C. §313),
including for fire weather. NOAA's fire weather activities
span multiple subagencies or line offices, including the
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
System (NESDIS); National Weather Service (NWS); and
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). These
activities occur at headquarters, regional centers, and local
weather forecast offices (WFOs) and are coordinated
through the intra-agency NOAA Fire Observation,
Research, and Services Team. Meteorologists and analysts
at the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC; an
intergovernmental group focused on mobilizing wildfire
resources) and its 10 regional centers also provide
operational fire weather services. This In Focus provides
information onNOAA's fire-weather-related activities and
potential congressional considerations.
Before the Fire
Before a fire, NESDIS, NWS, and OAR focus on
observations, prediction, and forecasting. These NOAA line
offices use observational platforms and models to detect
and monitor wildfires and provide daily decision support
services (forecast advice and interpretation) to the land
management and emergency response communities,
providing updates as information becomes available.
NOAA scientists also track variables that may contribute to
fire weather, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed,
humidity, and weather patterns.
Multiple environmental conditions must occur
simultaneously to produce extreme fire weather. These
include lightning, interaction between dry and moist air,
strong winds, and very low relative humidity. The
thresholds for each may differ depending on the geographic
area (e.g., average weather conditions in Los Angeles are
different from those in Detroit). NOAA researchers and
meteorologists produce a range of fire weather condition
outlooks and forecasts, including
* annual to seasonal El Nifio and La Nifia outlooks
(weather systems that influence drought conditions);
* seasonal to 6- to 10-day temperature and precipitation
outlooks;
* seasonal to weekly drought outlooks;
* 1- to 8-day fire weather outlooks; and
* 1- to 4-day forecasts, which include alerts, watches, and
warnings.
Some of the information in the outlooks and forecasts is
incorporated in NICC monthly and weekly significant fire
potential outlooks, among other federal forecasts and
decision support services.
Durn the Fire
NOAA forecasters share observations and forecasts on fire
weather conditions as a wildfire progresses. These forecasts
include those listed above as well as spot-specific forecasts
for wildfire responders. In some cases, NOAA deploys
incident meteorologists (IMETs) to a fire command center
to provide on-site weather and environmental information.
NOAA also uses observational platforms and models to
detect, monitor, and model smoke and air quality associated
with fires.
Com n lcaton
NOAA forecasters issue warnings and watches when the
combination of weather conditions and dry vegetation
indicates extreme fire danger or fire behavior. Forecasters
issue Red Flag Warnings when there is an impending or
occurring fire weather event and they are highly confident
that weather and fuel conditions consistent with [event]
criteria will occur in 48 hours or less. When there is a high
potential that an event will occur, forecasters issue Fire
Weather Watches 18 to 96 hours before the expected onset.
Each WFO determines the specific criteria for its area. For
example, the Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA, WFO (Figure 1)
issues a Red Flag Warning when there is dry vegetation
along with
* a combination of (a) relative humidity of 15% or below
and (b) sustained winds of 15 miles per hour (mph) or
greater (or gusts at 25 mph or greater) over more than
six hours and/or
* widespread (area covered) and/or significant (in terms of
number of strikes) dry lightning.
Forecasters have the discretion to issue a Red Flag Warning
outside of the specific criteria. In rare cases, the Red Flag
Warning may designate an area as being in a Particularly](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/govesgo0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)