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1 1 (January 13, 2025)

handle is hein.crs/govesag0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Con ressional flese rch Sentc fo~ rung I Ierj I lived in ~ m co 914 Updated January 13, 2025 The Middle East: Selected Issues for the 119th Congress Developments in the Middle East during 2023 and 2024 transformed the security landscape of the region with profound and still unfolding implications for the United States. Changes in the relative capabilities and influence of Israel, Iran, Arab states, Turkey, and armed nonstate groups may represent an inflection point for the region. Members of the 119the Congress may seek to shape and provide oversight of the policies of the incoming administration toward emerging trends and dynamics, including with regard to U.S. diplomacy, military operations, and foreign assistance. The October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, a Palestinian Sunni Islamist group and U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO), and Israel's military response and subsequent war with Hamas in and around the Gaza Strip precipitated a series of armed conflicts pitting longtime U.S. adversary Iran and the regional groups it supports against the United States and Israel. As of early 2025, the regional power of Iran appears diminished, with Iran and some of its regional allies militarily weakened. Israeli military action has degraded Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah (another FTO), and armed opposition groups toppled the Iran-backed regime of Bashar al Asad (alt. Assad) in Syria in December 2024. Iran and Israel had two military exchanges during 2024. In both cases, Iranian attacks were largely thwarted by Israeli and U.S. forces, with apparent support from some Arab governments, and Israeli retaliatory airstrikes in October reportedly caused substantial damage to Iranian air defense and ballistic missile production capabilities, probably increasing Iran's vulnerability to future attack. In response to these developments, the 118th Congress increased military assistance to Israel and humanitarian aid for crises in Gaza and elsewhere, and authorized new sanctions against Iran. den Adm nstration Pohcy The Biden Administration initially sought the creation, as stated in the 2022 National Security Strategy, of a more integrated Middle East that empowers our allies and partners, asserting that it would advance regional peace and prosperity, while reducing the resource demands the region makes on the United States over the long term. The October 2023 attack on Israel and subsequent regional conflicts seemingly disrupted those plans, at least in the near term. The Biden Administration devoted resources to defending Israel (including deployments of U.S. forces), and deterring and countering Iran and its partners. Before and after the October 2023 attack, the Biden Administration continued previous U.S. efforts (including via the Abraham Accords) to promote improved Israeli relations with Arab states that share an interest in countering Iran's regional influence. Saudi Arabia has conditioned normalization with Israel on an end to the war in Gaza and progress toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. Sekected Issues for the 19 Congress In considering legislative and oversight tools, Members of the 119th Congress may evaluate regional developments and incoming administration policies. Congress could face potential decisions about additional U.S. and/or Israeli military action against Iran, or negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program or other issues. Congress may also consider options regarding U.S. assistance toward Israel and the Palestinians in light of ongoing conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank, and elsewhere and the potential for improved relations between Israel and other U.S. partners. Additional issues include developments in post-Asad Syria (including with respect to U.S. sanctions and troop deployments); unresolved conflicts and/or governance challenges in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq; and the influence of other actors, such as Russia and the People's Republic of China. Iran In 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran faced military and strategic setbacks, largely at the hands of Israel as well as the United States, that appear to dramatically diminish advantages and leverage Tehran had built up over decades. Blows to Iranian regional partners, as well as the reportedly underwhelming performance and uncertain future of Iran's once-vaunted ballistic missile program, suggest that Iran's leaders may no longer be able to rely as much on these traditional asymmetric methods of Iranian power projection. The apparent degradation of Iran's regional allies, and their evident failure to deter direct Israeli military action against Iran, have sparked increasingly public discussion among Iranian policymakers about the future of Iran's strategic calculus, including the possible development of nuclear weapons. Iranian next steps could create opportunities and risks for the United States. An Iranian attempt to develop nuclear weapons could spur congressional debate over the potential risks and benefits of direct U.S. intervention to reinforce successive Administrations' vows not to allow such weapons. Whether or not in response to U.S. military action, Iran could also carry out attacks in the Gulf, including against U.S. allies, or close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leaders could also seek negotiations with the United States on the nuclear program and other issues. Internally, Iran's authoritarian regime appears secure but has faced popular protests in recent years. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (b. 1939) has no designated successor; the Islamic Republic will face a consequential and perhaps destabilizing moment when his rule ends. Figures associated with the incoming administration have said that they anticipate a return to maximum pressure, though it is not clear what forms that pressure might take. At the same time, President-elect Donald Trump has expressed openness to an agreement with Iran.

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