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Syria: Regime Change, Transition, and U.S.

Policy



December 9, 2024

Rapid offensives by Syrian armed groups opposed to the government of Bashar Al Asad (alt. Assad)
forced Asad's resignation and exile to Russia on December 8, 2024. This inflection point in Syria's post-
2011 civil war marked the end of decades of Asad-family rule.
Advances  since late November by anti-Asad groups left much of western Syria (including Damascus and
most other major cities, Figure 1) in the hands of different forces: a coalition led by the U.S.-designated
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) Hay'at Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the Turkey-backed Syrian National
Army  (SNA) coalition, and southern Syria-based armed groups. Groups (including Alawite minorities)
with historical ties to the Asad regime maintain a presence in some western coastal areas where Russian
air and naval bases are located. Eastern Syria remains largely under the control of the U.S.-backed,
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Free Army, both U.S.
counterterrorism partners against remnants of the Islamic State (IS/ISIS) that once dominated parts of
Syria and Iraq.
Many  Syrians are welcoming the end ofAsad's rule and opportunities to reunite families and release long-
held prisoners. At the same time, Syrians and outside observers note that considerable political, economic,
and security challenges lie ahead.
President Joseph Biden called Asad's ouster a fundamental act of justice and a moment of historic
opportunity. On December 9, a senior Biden Administration official asserted that U.S. policy helped
bring about the weakness ofthe Asad regime and the entire Iranian-backed artifice in the region, and
has completely changed the equation in the Middle East. President Biden also said the U.S. government
would protect U.S. citizens and personnel in Syria along with U.S. regional partners, and would remain
vigilant against a possible IS resurgence. Approximately 900 U.S. military personnel are present in
eastern and southern Syria, conducting counterterrorism missions against IS remnants and supporting the
SDF's detention of more than 9,000 IS prisoners and administration of camps for more than 40,000
individuals from formerly IS-held areas. U.S. Central Command conducted dozens of airstrikes against IS
targets in central Syria as Asad's forces withdrew. The United States suspended operations at the U.S.
Embassy  in Damascus in 2012; the Czech Republic serves as the U.S. protecting power in Syria.
President-elect Donald Trump made statements as Asad's government collapsed, calling for the United
States to refrain from involvement in Syria's conflict.

                                                                  Congressional Research Service
                                                                    https://crsreports.congress.gov
                                                                                        IN12469

CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

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