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Congressional Research Service
Informing the Ieg~Iative debate s~n&~e 1914
Updated October 30, 2024
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of
significant debate and oversight over the past decade as
Congress has sought to address the underlying factors
driving migration from the region to the United States.
Recent Trends
According to a model developed at the University of Texas
at Austin, an average of 407,000 people left the Northern
Triangle of Central America (see Figure 1) annually from
FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound for the United
States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an
estimated 692,000 people leaving the region in FY2019,
followed by 113,000 in FY2020, and 521,000 in FY2021.
Some surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential
migrants had postponed their plans amid the COVID-19
pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once
governments lifted cross-border travel restrictions.
Figure I. Northern Triangle of Central America
GUATEMALA
EL SA'LVAC
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
The number of U.S. Border Patrol encounters with foreign
nationals from the Northern Triangle countries who had
crossed the U.S. Southwest border between ports of entry
reached a high of nearly 684,000 in FY2021, before
declining for three consecutive years to 352,000 in FY2024
(see Figure 2; these data do not represent unique
individuals, since some individuals attempt multiple
crossings). Of those encountered in FY2024, 195,000 were
Guatemalan; 111,000 were Honduran; and 46,000 were
Salvadoran. About 42% of those encountered were single
adults, 41% were individuals traveling with family
members, and 16% were unaccompanied minors.
Root Causes
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
socioeconomic and security conditions-exacerbated by
natural disasters and poor governance-appear to be the
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
migrants and asylum-seekers. Some research suggests such
flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families
seek reunification and those who leave their communities
serve as examples for, and share their experiences and
resources with, those who remain behind.
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Encounters with
Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at
the Southwest Border: FY20 II -FY2024
Enforcement encounters at Southwest border (1,000s]
20 17 2019 2023
Sources: U.S. Border Patrol documents and data portal.
Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2023 include Title 42 public health
expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated among a small
group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme inequality and
widespread poverty. Although market-oriented economic
reforms in the 1980s and 1990s produced greater
macroeconomic stability, moderate economic gains have
not translated into improved living conditions for many in
the region. Analysts expect working-age populations in the
Northern Triangle will continue to grow over the next two
decades, since approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 42% of
Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of
20. Without improved job creation, those entering the
workforce may have to choose between pursuing limited,
precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated
informal sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere.
Natural Disasters
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
indicate that extreme warm temperatures have increased in
Central America since the mid-20th century, and portions of
the region have struggled with a series of prolonged
droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop
losses, some rural communities have experienced declining
employment opportunities in the coffee sector, which some
5 million Central Americans rely upon for their livelihoods.
Some rural families already had been selling off land and
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/goverdz0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)
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