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1 1 (Updated October 3, 2024)

handle is hein.crs/goveqwc0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service Informing th~ Ieg~sIative debate since 1914 0 Updated October 3, 2024 Introduction to U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Consumer spending is a key driver of short-run economic growth in the U.S. economy. This In Focus provides an overview of consumer spending, summarizes recent trends, describes its relationship with the business cycle, and discusses policy that can impact and be affected by consumer spending. How Consumer Spending s Measured As defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), consumer spending, also referred to as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, persons (households and nonprofit institutions serving households) living in the United States. PCE comprises roughly two- thirds of gross domestic product (GDP) and is therefore typically a large component of short-run economic growth. BEA provides PCE data monthly and measures these expenditures in relation to personal income and prices. Transactions included in the calculation of PCE consist largely of the purchases of new goods and services by households, among others. BEA measures the values of expenditure transactions, including sales and excise taxes. Measuring consumption expenditures against income allows for a comparison of how much consumers spend versus save. Tracking what people buy and how much they spend allows BEA to also track fluctuations in price levels, referred to as inflation in the case of rising prices. One of the most widely used sources for measuring inflation is BEA's PCE Price Index. Real PCE (PCE adjusted for inflation) is calculated by adjusting PCE by the price index. Recent Trends in Consumer Spend ng Figure 1 shows the pattern of real PCE in the United States between the first quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2024. The total PCE data are additionally shown broken out into spending in two main categories, goods and services. Expenditures of both goods and services have increased steadily since 2007, except during the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009 and the COVID-19 recession. In 2020, PCE dropped by an annualized 6.9% in March and 11.4% in April before increasing by 8.3% and 6.0% in May and June-notably large monthly changes. By comparison, the monthly changes in PCE during the 2007-2009 recession and recovery were between -1.5% and 1.2%. Nonetheless, even with the large drop during the COVID- 19 recession, real PCE remained higher in the second quarter of 2020 than in any single quarter of the 2007-2009 recession, although the magnitude of the difference is smaller when population is accounted for. In recent years, overall real PCE growth has been relatively robust despite high inflation and contractionary monetary policy (discussed below). Figure I. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures QI 2007-Q2 2024 Ch~ain~ed Dollars 616,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,00 $s,000 $C,000 $4,000 $2,000O Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Note: Data are seasonally adjusted at annual rates. Gray bars indicate recessions. Consumer Spending and the Economy Patterns of consumer spending can be linked closely with broader economic conditions, specifically the business cycle and economic growth. The Business Cycle and GDP Consumer spending generally follows the pattern of the business cycle. During economic downturns, consumer spending typically decreases as unemployment increases and personal income decreases. In contrast, during expansions, consumer spending increases as unemployment decreases and personal income increases. A strong economy can impact consumer sentiment and spending. Consumer confidence due to economic conditions may increase purchases of durable goods (goods that can be used over a long period of time), such as vehicles or major appliances. Historically, spending on durable goods (long-lasting goods, such as cars and home appliances) has been more cyclical than spending on nondurable goods (goods that are single use or are consumed over a short period of time, such as food and fuel). Therefore, spending on durable goods should decrease relatively more in a recession as, in theory, individuals have the ability to put off these usually larger purchases until the economy improves or the need becomes sufficiently urgent.

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