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1 1 (September 20, 2024)

handle is hein.crs/goveqrt0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service informing the legislative debate since 1914 0 September 20, 2024 Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah: Current Violence and Potential Escalation A day after Hamas (a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization, or FTO) led the October 7, 2023, attacks against Israel that began their ongoing war, Lebanese Hezbollah (another FTO) started shooting rockets and missiles across Lebanon's border into Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas. Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have regularly exchanged fire across the border, in the latest phase of their adversarial history. Iran appears to regard Hezbollah as its most capable partner in its axis of resistance versus Israel, and debate persists regarding the degree to which Hezbollah acts independently or as Iran's proxy. Since July 2024, Israel-Hezbollah violence has become more volatile than in the preceding nine months. Separate U.S.-supported efforts to pause or halt fighting in Gaza and at the Lebanon border have not produced a clear breakthrough. September 2024 covert attacks attributed to, but not claimed by, Israel resulted in the explosion of electronic devices reportedly acquired by Hezbollah. The explosions reportedly killed tens and injured thousands in Lebanon, including some civilians. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate, and Israel has announced a shift of some of its military forces from Gaza to the Lebanese border area. Figure I. Hezbollah's Rocket and Missile Arsenal Even if Hezbollah were to agree to halt attacks, perhaps in connection with an Israel-Hamas cease-fire, Israeli leaders insist that Hezbollah's fighters must be kept back from the border to mitigate the threat of an October 7-style attack there. Violence to date has displaced some 60,000 Israeli and 95,000 Lebanese civilians from their homes near the border. In September, Israel's cabinet added the goal of returning evacuated Israelis to its official war objectives. While Israel retains conventional military superiority in the region, some Israeli and U.S. analysts have assessed that Hezbollah could be capable of overwhelming, depleting, or targeting Israeli air defense systems via massive projectile volleys-some of which may include precision guidance. Dismantling Hezbollah's military capacity in Lebanon may be more difficult than doing so against Hamas's forces in Gaza, partly due to Hezbollah's considerable defensive capabilities in Lebanon's varied terrain and the wider geographic dispersal of Hezbollah's assets and personnel. israel 1982- 1985 Hezbollah: Selected HI stor cal Events Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon and related U.S. and French military involvement trigger resistance from some factions in Lebanon's ongoing civil war. Elements from Lebanon's Shia community-including some responsible for fatal attacks on U.S. and French installations-establish Hezbollah with help from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I > dI ~ S Fair-3 43km 24 mm ~O~g l~r 4S0% gHr ~o0~s ~kr 45& ~CD ~ HE Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 2024 (citing various sources). Subsequent signs of escalation, including an Israeli airstrike on September 20 in Beirut that the Israeli government says killed several senior Hezbollah officials, may increase the prospects of broader war. Hezbollah's large arsenal of drones, rockets, and missiles (see Figure 1) could threaten Israeli strategic sites and population centers, and Israel could strike throughout Lebanon, with potentially devastating consequences to its institutions and society. Wider-scale war could prompt Israel to seek additional U.S. material support or direct military involvement, with major implications for U.S. national security interests in the region. 1985 Israeli military withdraws from central Lebanon, but maintains a zone of control in predominantly Shia- populated southern Lebanon with a Lebanese partner force. Hezbollah becomes the main node of resistance to the Israeli presence. 1992- Hezbollah bombings of Israel's embassy (1992) and a 1994 jewish community center (1994) in Argentina kill 29 and 85 people, respectively. 1996 Hezbollah attacks on Israel and Israeli forces trigger the 17-day Israeli Operation Grapes of Wrath, which kills more than 200 Lebanese. 2000 Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon, leading Hezbollah to claim victory. Hezbollah maintains that Israel still occupies Lebanese territory in disputed parts of the tri-border (Israel-Lebanon-Syria) area. 2006 Israel and Hezbollah engage in a 34-day war after a fatal Hezbollah attack and hostage-taking on an Israeli military position. In the war, some 160 Israelis and 1,200 Lebanese are killed. After the war, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls for all non-Lebanese army forces to withdraw north of the Litani River; Hezbollah does not comply and starts to rearm.

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