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Updated August 6, 2024
Russia's Nuclear Weapons
Russia presents an acute threat to the United States and
its allies, according to the 2022 National Defense Strategy.
The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, a Biden Administration
review of U.S. nuclear policy, states:
Russia remains the U.S. rival with the most capable
and diverse nuclear forces. Today it is unique in the
combination of strategic and non-strategic nuclear
forces it fields that enables nuclear employment
ranging from large-scale attacks on the [U.S.]
homeland to limited strikes in support of a regional
military campaign [in the Euro-Atlantic region].
Since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian
President Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear
weapons against the West, stated that Russia has deployed
nonstrategic nuclear weapons to its ally Belarus, and
declared the suspension of certain Russian obligations
under the New START Treaty that limit U.S. and Russian
strategic nuclear forces. Congress may choose to examine
U.S. deterrence and risk reduction policy toward Russia.
Force Structure
According to a recent nongovernmental estimate, Russia
has around 1,710 deployed nuclear warheads based on a
triad of strategic delivery vehicles roughly consisting of 326
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 12 ballistic-
missile submarines (SSBNs) with 192 submarine-launched
ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and 58 strategic bombers.
Russia has not exchanged official data with the United
States about the structure of its strategic nuclear forces
since 2023. Russian officials have stated, however, that
Russia continues to abide by New START limits, thus
maintaining rough parity with U.S. strategic nuclear forces.
According to one nongovernmental estimate, the United
States has around 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads.
Russia is concluding a modernization of its strategic nuclear
forces that focuses in particular on the development of the
SS-X-29 (Sarmat) heavy ICBM, the SS-27 Mod 2 (Yars)
ICBM, and the Dolgorukiy (Borei) class SSBN, according
to a 2024 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment.
Russia deploys the majority of its strategic nuclear
warheads on ICBMs. A separate Russian military service,
the Strategic Rocket Forces, commands these silo-based
and mobile ICBMs. Russia can field most of its ICBMs and
all of its SLBMs with multiple warheads on each missile,
according to a nongovernmental source.
Russia also has a variety of dual-capable systems (which
are able to use conventional or nuclear warheads), including
precision strike missiles, of various ranges and modes of
launch, that are not limited by any arms control agreements.
The Russian military could deploy these systems with
nuclear warheads, enabling their use as nonstrategic nuclear
weapons. Russia has rejected U.S. efforts to negotiate limits
on Russian nonstrategic nuclear weapons, describing these
weapons as an offset to U.S. and NATO conventional
superiority. The State Department estimated in 2024 that
the Russian military has between 1,000 to 2,000 nuclear
warheads for nonstrategic weapons; nongovernmental
organizations attribute 1,558 warheads to these systems.
Russian officials have expressed concerns about the
survivability of Russian strategic nuclear forces, given
advances in U.S. long-range conventional strike and missile
defenses. In 2018, President Putin announced that Russia
was developing new delivery vehicles, including an ICBM-
mounted hypersonic glide vehicle, a nuclear-powered cruise
missile, and a nuclear-capable autonomous underwater
system. According to 2024 testimony of NORTHCOM
Commander General Gregory Guillot, Russia intends for
these systems to challenge U.S. defenses and guarantee
Russia's ability to retaliate after a first strike.
Doctrine and Employment Pans
According to a 2020 Russian doctrinal document, Russian
nuclear deterrence policy seeks to maintain nuclear forces
at a sufficient level, guarantees protection of national
sovereignty and territorial integrity, deters aggression, and
enables escalation management, as well as the
termination of adversary military actions on conditions
acceptable to Russia. The document adds that the Russian
President could authorize nuclear weapons employment in
scenarios that include the arrival of reliable data about a
ballistic missile attack against Russian or allied territory,
the use by an adversary of nuclear and other weapons of
mass destruction against Russia or an ally, adversary
actions on government or military targets that could
affect Russia's ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons,
and conventional aggression against [Russia] ... when the
very existence of the state is in jeopardy.
Russian political and military leaders have articulated a
strategic deterrence concept that combines nonmilitary
means, nonnuclear capabilities, and nuclear weapons into a
spectrum of continuous actions aimed at deterrence,
escalation management, and warfighting. According to the
U.S. intelligence community's 2024 Annual Threat
Assessment (ATA), Russia is expanding and modernizing
its dual-capable systems because Moscow believes [they]
offer options to deter adversaries, control the escalation of
potential hostilities, and counter U.S. and Allied
conventional forces. Western studies of authoritative
Russian military writings depict several different variants of
ladders involving steps with dual-capable systems the
Russian military could take to deter or manage escalation.](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/goveqgd0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)