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1 1 (June 3, 2024)

handle is hein.crs/govepox0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congres&on I Research SerVc informing I iej~ live de We o IS 14 Updated June 3, 2024 Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have been increasingly challenged to defend against Russian advances, given ongoing disadvantages in personnel and a less developed defense industry. The UAF has demonstrated flexibility over the course of the conflict to date, as well as an ability to integrate Western security assistance into its military campaigns. Nevertheless, the UAF continues to face obstacles to sustaining momentum against Russian forces, including personnel and equipment losses. In March 2024 testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines assessed, Ukraine's retreat from Avdiivka and their struggle to stave off further territorial losses in the past few weeks have exposed the erosion of Ukraine's military capabilities. Since early 2022, the Biden Administration and Congress have supported Ukraine's defense of its territorial integrity against Russia's invasion. The UAF's evolving condition and performance may be of interest to Congress as Members consider U.S. support for the UAF. Personnel The UAF's overall performance to date has been bolstered, in part, by high levels of recruitment and motivation. High personnel losses, however, pose a continued challenge to the UAF's ability to sustain effective operations. After Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the UAF gained important combat experience fighting Russian-led forces in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (known as the Donbas). In 2022, Ukraine was able to quickly mobilize these veterans and other volunteers into a new volunteer Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) and Reserve without the need for lengthy training. Since the beginning of the 2022 war, the UAF has suffered high levels of casualties, lowering force quality. Losses are likely higher among regular UAF and Special Forces units, leading to a greater reliance on TDF and Reserve units. Many of these TDF and Reserve units also have sustained heavy casualties, further increasing the proportion of new recruits needed to regenerate forces. The UAF faces several challenges in deploying new personnel. At the time of the invasion, Ukraine did not have a fully developed professional noncommissioned officer (NCO) corps, which it previously had been seeking to develop along NATO standards. Due to the high number of trained veterans, many with combat experience, there was less of a need for an NCO corps to train new recruits. Losses among these veterans have increased the importance of developing a professional NCO corps. The UAF's need for immediate reinforcements creates pressure to deploy troops with only basic training. However, the UAF also needs to train personnel to conduct complex operations and operate advanced weaponry in order to sustain combat operations. Currently, the UAF is also experiencing recruiting challenges. The reported average age of Ukrainian soldiers is around 40 years old, and media reports document an apparently increasing resistance among younger Ukrainians to join the UAF. Ukraine passed legislation in April 2024 to address some recruitment and rotation issues (including allowing some prisoners to serve in exchange for a reduced sentence), but Ukrainian officials have yet to implement elements of the legislation, including ordering new conscription or mobilization. Additionally, the UAF reportedly struggles to train officers for staff positions to assist commanders in managing and coordinating operations. The lack of trained staff officers has in some cases led to higher-level command staff coordinating and managing tactical operations, leading to centralized and slower decisionmaking. Equipment The UAF operates a mix of Western and Soviet or early Russian equipment. This variety of systems complicates maintenance and standardization. To date, the UAF has sustained significant equipment losses, apparently leaving some UAF units without mechanized or motorized vehicle support. The UAF has exhibited resilience in the face of such losses, in part due to Western security assistance and concerted UAF maintenance efforts. Ukraine has nearly exhausted its supplies of Soviet and Russian artillery and rocket ammunition, making the UAF almost entirely reliant on Western assistance for such systems and ammunition. To date, the UAF has demonstrated an ability to use the qualitative advantages provided by Western security assistance (e.g., long-range precision fires) to mitigate Russian quantitative advantages in artillery. As of early 2024, however, UAF officials stated that a shortage of Western artillery ammunition was hampering operations and contributing to Russian advances (such as capturing the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka). Ukraine's domestic defense industry produces a wide variety of weapons but has been unable to meet the country's full wartime demands. In addition, Russian forces continue to target Ukraine's domestic defense industry. Ukraine's international partners have begun to take steps to help Ukraine strengthen its defense industry capacity (including through joint production agreements with Western defense companies) to help Ukraine meet its long-

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