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1 1 (April 2, 2024)

handle is hein.crs/goveovu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Servit informing the legisi itive debate since 1914 Terrorist Groups in Afghanistan Afghanistan's geography, complex ethnic composition, and history of conflict and instability have long created space for Islamist terrorist groups, some of which seek to conduct attacks abroad. United Nations (UN) sanctions monitors report that the high concentration of terrorist groups in Afghanistan undermines the security situation in the region. Two of the most prominent such groups are Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP, the Afghanistan- based affiliate of the Islamic State) and Al Qaeda (AQ). Relations between these groups and other actors (including the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021) and the respective threats they pose to U.S. interests are likely to inform congressional assessments of U.S. policy in Afghanistan. U.S. officials have told Congress that since the withdrawal of U.S. forces, the United States has no military or diplomatic personnel in Afghanistan, but has maintained over-the-horizon capabilities to address terrorist threats there. Islamkc State-Khorasan Province (QSKP) The group that reportedly poses the greatest threat within Afghanistan and beyond is ISKP (also known as ISIS-K or IS-K), and ISKP has launched plots and carried out operations in multiple countries, including in Russia in March 2024. The Islamic State announced the formation of this Afghan affiliate in 2015, and ISKP was designated as a U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2016. ISKP was initially concentrated in eastern Afghanistan, bordering the region of Pakistan formerly known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). There, ISKP mostly comprised former Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, see below) militants who fled Pakistani army operations in the FATA after 2014. Today it recruits across Central Asia, and estimates of its size range from 2,000 to 5,000. ISKP controlled territory in eastern and northern Afghanistan until it was allegedly nearly eradicated from its main Afghan base by U.S. and Afghan military offensives and, separately, Taliban operations in 2018- 2020. ISKP continued to conduct attacks against various targets, particularly Afghanistan's Shia minority, the Hazaras. ISKP also carried out the suicide bombing at Kabul's airport that killed and injured dozens of U.S. servicemembers and hundreds of Afghans during the August 2021 U.S. military withdrawal. That suicide bomber was reportedly one of the thousands of ISKP prisoners who escaped from Afghan prisons after the Taliban takeover. The planner of the attack was reportedly killed by the Taliban in 2023. While the Taliban and ISKP share some ideological similarities, they are doctrinally distinct given the Taliban's close relationship with IS rival Al Qaeda (see below) and ISKP's view of the Taliban's Afghanistan- focused nationalist political project as counter to the IS Updated April 2, 2024 vision of a global caliphate. ISKP has launched attacks against Taliban targets since mid-2021, killing several senior officials (including provincial governors in March and June 2023), as well as externally-oriented operations, including cross border rocket attacks against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, attacks against the Russian and Pakistani embassies in Kabul, and an assault on a Kabul hotel frequented by Chinese nationals. The Taliban appear to view ISKP as the primary threat to their rule and have launched offensives against it. In March 2024, a U.S. official said the Taliban have made progress combating [ISKP], but they have struggled to dismantle [ISKP]'s clandestine urban cells and prevent attacks on soft targets. While ISKP retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks in Afghanistan, ISKP's external attacks are raising alarms in Europe and elsewhere. According to one expert, the group is expanding its external operations capacity, as evidenced by its growing media presence (particularly propaganda targeting Central Asian nationals) and planned or actual attacks in Pakistan, India, Turkey, and Germany. ISKP claimed responsibility for mass casualty attacks in Iran and Russia in January and March 2024, respectively; the United States reportedly sent private warnings to both Iran and Russia that ISKP was planning attacks. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Erik Kurilla estimated in March 2023 testimony that ISKP could be capable of conducting an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months, a warning he repeated in March 2024 testimony. Al Qaeda The presence of AQ's top leaders (sometimes referred to as Al Qaeda core) in Afghanistan dates back to the 1990s, when AQ founder Osama bin Laden (killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan in 2011) pledged allegiance to the Taliban, who in turn provided a safe haven to Al Qaeda as it planned the September 11, 2001, and other terrorist attacks. AQ-Taliban ties were reinforced by their shared battle against U.S.-led international forces in Afghanistan after 2001, as well as through intermarriage and other interpersonal bonds. AQ remained a key target of U.S.-led military operations. In September 2019, the White House announced that U.S. forces had killed Hamza bin Laden, son of AQ founder Osama bin Laden and a rising leader in the group, in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region. AQ sympathizers celebrated the Taliban's August 2021 takeover as a victory. Since the Taliban's return to power, AQ-Taliban ties have remained close, but UN sanctions monitors report that the Taliban seek to reduce the visibility of these relationships and that the Taliban have taken some steps to constrain Al Qaeda, leading to tensions between the groups. In July 2022, the United States killed AQ leader Ayman al Zawahiri in Kabul. The circumstances of Zawahiri's presence there and what they might signify beyond

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