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April 1, 2024
Congressional Commission on the U.S. Strategic Posture
Congress plays an important role in U.S. nuclear weapons
policy through funding and oversight of U.S. strategic
military capabilities and related programs carried out by the
Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of
Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA).
The Senate also considers providing advice and consent to
ratification of arms control treaties negotiated by the
executive branch.
Congress has periodically created high-level panels to
examine relevant issues. Most recently, Section 1687 of the
FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 117-81)
established a 12-member bipartisan commission to
conduct a review of the [U.S.] strategic posture ...
including a strategic threat assessment and a detailed review
of nuclear weapons policy, strategy, and force structure and
factors affecting the strategic stability of [U.S.] near-peer
competitors; assess benefits and risks of current U.S.
nuclear policies and strategic posture; and make
recommendations to the President and Congress on the
U.S. long-term strategic posture.
Chaired by former NNSA principal deputy administrator
Madelyn Creedon and former Senator Jon Kyl, the
Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the
United States (Strategic Posture Commission or SPC) met
between July 2022 and August 2023. The SPC's October
2023 consensus report outlines the evolving nuclear
postures from Russia and the People's Republic of China
(PRC or China) during the 2017-2035 time period and
proposes over 80 recommendations for U.S. defense policy,
nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities, the U.S.
nuclear weapons complex, and nuclear arms control.
Fndings and Recommendations
The SPC report argues that the U.S.-led international
order is threatened by Chinese and Russian authoritarian
regimes. This high-stakes challenge, the report states,
requires urgent action by the executive branch and
Congress to ensure U.S. vital interests and international
stability.
The SPC report posits the emergence of a two-nuclear-
peer environment. It describes the evolution of Russian
and PRC nuclear weapons, as well as their conventional
(nonnuclear), space and counterspace, cyber, electronic
warfare, chemical, and biological capabilities. The report
also describes regional threats from North Korea and Iran,
the challenges of emerging technologies and proliferation,
threats to the U.S. homeland from adversarial capabilities
and terrorism, and the possibility of strategic surprise.
The SPC report argues that an effective U.S. strategic
posture needs to account for the possibility of
opportunistic or simultaneous Russian and/or PRC
military aggression in Europe and Asia. The report stresses
the importance of U.S. relations with allies and potential
allied contributions to the broader strategic posture.
Nuclear strategy and posture
The SPC report endorses a U.S. nuclear strategy based on
six fundamental tenets-assured second strike, flexible
response, tailored deterrence, extended deterrence and
assurance, calculated ambiguity in declaratory policy, [and]
hedge against risk. The report argues that U.S. nuclear
employment planning should be consistent with the Law
of Armed Conflict, which prohibits targeting of civilian
populations, and notes that U.S. nuclear weapons should
continue to target what U.S. adversaries value most.
Echoing multiple U.S. Nuclear Posture Reviews (NPRs),
which is a periodic congressionally mandated executive
branch document outlining U.S. nuclear strategy, the SPC
report stresses the traditional role of nuclear weapons,
which includes deterrence of adversaries, assurance of
[a]llies, achieving U.S. objectives should deterrence fail,
and hedging against adverse events. The report argues that
the triad of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs),
ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) with submarine-
launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers,
as well as modernized nuclear command and control (NC3),
is the U.S. strategic posture foundation for ... the
foreseeable future.
The SPC report calls for fully and urgently executing the
current nuclear delivery system and warheads
modernization program of record (POR) and highlights the
growing risks to the program's costs and schedule. The
report also argues that the current POR is necessary but
not sufficient because it does not account for evolving
Russian and PRC nuclear arsenals. The report offers the
following modifications to the POR:
Prepare to upload [mount on delivery vehicles] some or
all of the additional nuclear warheads the United States
currently holds in reserve as a hedge against
technological or geopolitical risks.
Increase the planned procurement of the long-range
standoff weapon (LRSO) nuclear-armed air-launched
cruise missile, B-21 bombers and related tankers, and
Columbia class SSBN with Trident SLBM.
Plan to deploy the Sentinel ICBM with multiple nuclear
warheads and pursue the feasibility of fielding some
of these new ICBMs in a road mobile configuration.
Initiate plans for continuous B-21 bomber patrols and
accelerate the development of advanced](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/goveovi0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)