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Pakistan's Domestic Political Setting


Overvw
Historically, constitutionalism and parliamentary
democracy have fared poorly in the Islamic Republic of
Pakistan, marked by power struggles among presidents,
prime ministers (PMs), and army chiefs. Congress has taken
an interest in efforts to strengthen civilian rule, address
corruption, and improve governance in the nuclear-armed
state. The military has directly governed Pakistan for 33 of
its 76 years of independence-most recently from 1999 to
2008-interspersed with periods of generally weak civilian
governance. Pakistan has had five constitutions, the most
recent ratified in 1973 and significantly modified several
times since. The military has engaged in three outright
seizures of power from elected governments: by Army
Chiefs Gen. Ayub Khan in 1958, Gen. Zia ul-Haq in 1977,
and Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999. After 1970, five
successive governments were voted into power, but not
until 2013 was a government voted out of power-all
previous were removed directly by the army or through
presidential orders. Of Pakistan's three most prominent
PMs, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was executed; his daughter
Benazir Bhutto was exiled and later assassinated; and three-
time PM Nawaz  Sharif was convicted on corruption charges
and lived in self-imposed exile from 2019 until his late
2023 return to the country.

Pakistan is a parliamentary democracy in which the PM is
head of government and the president is head of state. A
bicameral parliament is composed of a 336-seat National
Assembly  (NA) and a 104-seat Senate. Both have directly
elected representatives from each of the country's four
provinces (Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or KP,
Punjab, and Sindh), as well as from the Islamabad Capital
Territory-the quasi-independent regions of Azad Kashmir
and Gilgit-Baltistan have no representation. NA members
are elected from 266 districts; the body reserves 60 seats for
women  and 10 seats for religious minorities on a
proportional basis. The PM is elected by the NA. The
president, with a largely ceremonial role, is elected to a
five-year term by an Electoral College composed of both
chambers of parliament and members of the country's four
provincial assemblies. NA and provincial assembly
members  are elected to five-year terms. Senate terms are six
years, with elections every three years. Senate powers are
limited, and only the NA can approve budget and finance
bills.

Background:   2022  Political Upheaval
The 2018 elections brought a dramatic end to the decades-
long domination of Pakistan's national politics by two
dynastic parties as the relatively young Pakistan Tehreek-e-
Insaf (PTI or Movement for Justice) party, led by former
cricket superstar Imran Khan, swept a plurality (46%) of
NA  seats. The PTI also took charge of a coalition in the
Punjab provincial assembly (about 60% of Pakistanis live in
Punjab) while retaining the majority it won in KP in 2013.


Updated March  28, 2024


Khan  had no governance experience before 2018. His
Naya  [New] Pakistan vision sought creation of a welfare
state, but the effort foundered due to the country's acute
(and ongoing) financial crises. Most analysts saw Pakistan's
military continuing to retain dominant influence over
foreign and security policies. During Khan's tenure,
Pakistan's economic woes grew more severe, requiring an
International Monetary Fund bailout package in 2019 to
ease the country's debt crisis.

A late 2021 power struggle between PM Khan and the then-
Army  Chief over the appointment of a new intelligence
director may have contributed to the establishment (a
euphemism  for the military and intelligence services)
withdrawing support for Khan-the same support that
likely boosted the PTI in 2018 successes. Opposition parties
narrowly passed a no-confidence motion against Khan, who
was removed  from office in April 2022. The NA then
elected a new government under Pakistan Muslim League-
Nawaz  (PML-N)  leader Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz's younger
brother, in alliance with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
and others among the Pakistan Democratic Movement
(PDM)  coalition formed in 2020. Khan and his party,
animating many younger, urban, middle-class voters and
still commanding widespread popular support, denounced
his removal and demanded early elections.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) demurred and
then delayed provincial and national elections. Khan was
arrested on corruption charges in May 2023, a move some
analysts say was provoked by his unprecedented public
criticisms of security agencies and officials. His arrest
sparked mass protests by PTI activists, including attacks on
army installations. Thousands of demonstrators were
arrested, and the military, in apparent concert with the
PML-N-led  government-set  about dismantling the PTI
through a pressure campaign and arrests of party leadership.

In August 2023, Khan was convicted, sentenced to prison,
and banned from politics for five years. As per the
constitution, a caretaker government was seated the same
month to oversee the election process. Although required
by mid-November  under the constitution, the election was
delayed, ostensibly to delimit new districts based on a
recently completed census. As the election date approached,
the government imposed restrictions on the PTI, including
media and electoral symbol bans, and further criminal
convictions of Khan. Even before the election took place,
the EIU Democracy  Index 2023 downgraded Pakistan from
a hybrid regime to an authoritarian regime, saying
Pakistan's regression in 2023 was the worst in the region.

2024  National and  Provincial Elections
Elections to seat Pakistan's 16th NA and four provincial
assemblies took place on February 8. More than 5,100 NA
candidates (94% of them male) and 167 registered parties

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