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              Congressional                                                       ____
      e' Research Service






Bank Exposure to Commercial Real Estate



November 16, 2023

The economic turmoil resulting from the pandemic negatively affected commercial real estate (CRE),
particularly by leading to a sharp, albeit temporary, increase in delinquencies among commercial
mortgage-backed securities. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, some CRE owners with
mortgages outstanding are continuing to face pressure from a decline in lease payments. Missed payments
potentially jeopardize owners' ability to repay their lenders, many of which are banks. According to the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), more than 98 percent of banks engage in CRE lending
and CRE  loans are the largest loan portfolio type for nearly half of all banks. This Insight examines the
extent to which banks are exposed to CRE risk and explores issues Congress may find relevant.


Overview of CRE Market Stress

The CRE  market is large and complex. Most of the properties are owned or leased by private companies,
so valuing the market is difficult. Banks are the largest lender of CRE mortgages and hold around $3
trillion in CRE debt on their balance sheets. Nonbank financial institutions also play a significant role.
CRE  comprises many subsectors, including office and industrial space, retail storefronts, apartments,
hotels, health care facilities, and other specialty properties such as sports venues, storage units, and data
centers, but stress is concentrated in office and retail space.
CRE  mortgages are financed on shorter terms than residential mortgages, often with balloon payments
due at maturity, often two to five years. Trepp, an industry analysis firm, estimates that $448 billion in
CRE  loans are maturing in 2023, with about $270 billion of that coming from bank loans. In the retail
subsector, leases on many retail spaces tend to last between three and five years. This means that many of
the tenants of properties with mortgages coming due are deciding whether or not to renew their leases. In
the office subsector, due to the convergence of work-from-home policies and other economic pressures,
many  companies that rent space from CRE owners are not renewing their leases, and some are breaking
their leases or trying to renegotiate terms. This is evidenced by higher office vacancy rates, which hit all-
time highs earlier this year.
A loss of rental income will lead to higher default rates among CRE owners. This is compounded by the
coinciding maturities of many CRE mortgages, which will accelerate defaults if rental income cannot
sufficiently offset the balloon payment obligations or if alternative financing cannot be procured.


                                                                 Congressional Research Service
                                                                   https://crsreports.congress.gov
                                                                                       IN12278

CRS INSIGHT
Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress

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