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December 15, 2022
Energy Transition: Affordability, Emissions, and Security

Overview
The United States is undergoing a transition in the energy
sector, with a shift in energy supplies and production over
relatively short periods of time. Over the last 20 years,
natural gas has surpassed coal as the dominant fuel for
electricity generation, and the proportion of renewable
energy employed has roughly doubled. During this time, the
United States became a net exporter of both petroleum and
natural gas. This ongoing energy transition, both in fossil
fuels and renewable energy, has led to continuing energy
policy discussion at all levels.
U.S. energy policy has often focused on three major goals:
keeping energy costs low, protecting the environment, and
assuring a secure supply of energy. Sometimes, these goals
have been competing, sometimes complementary. In pursuit
of these goals, government programs have been developed
to improve the efficiency with which energy is utilized; to
mitigate the detrimental effects of energy supply and use; to
promote the domestic production of an array of energy
sources; and to develop new sources.
Implementing federal energy programs is often
controversial because varying stakeholders have different
energy policy priorities. For some, having inexpensive,
abundant energy to supply the U.S. economy is the key
policy objective. For others, the continued use of fossil
fuels, whatever their origin, in the face of their
environmental impacts, may be most important. Still others
view U.S. (or allied) dependence on foreign energy,
particularly from adversaries, as a primary concern.
Figure 1. Share of U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
by Fuel Type, 2005-2020
100%
80%                              9
r Renewable
6G%                         &~o  Hydro
MNuclear
40%                                       Petroleum
Natural Gas
20%
Coal
0%
2Os     2010    2015     2020
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review,
November 2022.
Since 2005, U.S. primary energy consumption has held
relatively steady while the economy has generally grown
(except for occasional dips related to major world events-
e.g., in 2009 due to the great recession, and in 2020 due to
the COVID-19 pandemic). During that time, the U.S.
economy has become more efficient at using energy.
Natural gas and renewable energy sources (mostly wind and
solar) have replaced coal in the energy mix, primarily as

fuel for electricity production, while petroleum demand-
mostly for transportation-has declined somewhat. (See
Figure 1.)
Over the same time period, greenhouse gas emissions from
U.S. electric power plants have steadily decreased.
Emissions from transportation have declined at a slower
rate, and in 2017 transportation emissions exceeded those
of electricity for the first time. (Figure 2.)
Affordability
In general, U.S. energy policy has sought to ensure supplies
of inexpensive, abundant energy to support the U.S.
economy and consumers. Policies such as establishing the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are aimed at preventing
price shocks. Policies promoting oil, natural gas, and
renewable energy production on federal lands aim at
increasing domestic energy supply. Historically, the United
States has also promoted nuclear power through a range of
policies to reduce its costs (e.g., nuclear liability insurance,
incentive payments). The United States has also enacted a
range of tax credits and research programs over time to
promote various energy sources. Most recently, the 117th
Congress enacted a suite of tax incentives, rebates, and
research, development, demonstration, and deployment
(RDD&D) programs aimed at reducing the cost of new
energy supplies for producers and consumers.
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers'
exposure to high and volatile prices has been in evidence in
recent years. Events include high gasoline prices in 2022, as
well as weather-related spikes in electricity and natural gas
prices in Texas in 2021. The extent to which policy tools
can address price volatility varies, as prices are driven by a
range of factors, including domestic and international
energy supplies, trade policies, emissions requirements,
state and local taxes, and other regulations, many of which
vary by fuel type and end use.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) from combustion of fossil fuels
(petroleum, natural gas, and coal) represents the single
largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
(73% in 2020). Other GHGs include methane and
fluorinated gases, which may also be emitted from energy
systems. The transportation sector and electric power sector
each represent roughly one-third of U.S. GHG emissions
from fossil fuel use, and each represent roughly one-quarter
of total U.S. GHG emissions.
U.S. GHG emissions have been declining. Total GHG
emissions dropped 12% between 2005 and 2019. The
electricity sector has led emissions reductions. CO2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion, a subset of total U.S.

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