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December 21, 2021

Zambia: 2021 Elections and New Government

In Zambia's August 2021 general elections, longtime
opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema won the presidential
race with 59% of votes-after five prior unsuccessful runs.
In concurrent National Assembly elections, his United Party
for National Development (UPND) party won a majority; it
holds 56% of 165 seats, including appointed ones.
U.S. post-poll statements, including from Members of
Congress, lauded the electoral process and the peaceful
transfer of power to Hichilema by then-President Edgar
Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) party. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken later called Zambia's unshakeable
commitment to democratic ideals... an inspiration to all who
seek the freedom, prosperity, and justice. He attributed the
elections' success, in part, to the participation of a record
number of young and first-time voters. (Voter turnout, at
69%, was the highest since 2006.) Opposition activists
elsewhere in Africa hailed the outcome as demonstrating
that years of dogged opposition activism can result in the
democratic ouster of powerful incumbent regimes.
Hichilema has pledged to reverse negative human rights
and civil liberties trends under Lungu, such as arbitrary
detentions of opposition leaders and civil society activists,
police repression of peaceful protests and opposition events,
and forced closures or suspensions of some media outlets.
U.S. officials have welcomed Hichilema's governance
agenda and announced development aid in support of it.
2021 General Election
Ahead of the 2021 polls, a number of news reports and
polling by Afrobarometer (an independent public opinion
research network) indicated that Lungu and his PF party
would face strong political headwinds. Factors cited
included a sharp drop in growth rates, high unemployment
and public debt, public service delivery shortcomings,
corruption, and growing opposition to the government's
alleged use of authoritarian tactics-over which Senate
Foreign Relation Committee Chairman Robert Menendez
raised concerns in August 2021. A range of analysts,
however, speculated that the Lungu government might use
its powers of incumbency-including control over state
media, the national security apparatus, and public order
laws-to enable Lungu and his PF to retain power.
Days prior to polling day, the government deployed the
military to bolster security and curtail high levels of
election violence by rival party supporters after the killing
of two PF backers. Some observers saw this move as
potentially intimidating to opposition supporters, given an
alleged prior pattern of anti-UPND law enforcement actions
by police, which had drawn U.S. admonishment. On voting
day, authorities restricted social media, with implications
for vote results monitoring and reporting transparency,
though a court halted that action. After the vote, Lungu-
who, citing various bases, had threatened to have his
opponent arrested after the election-claimed that the
process was not free and fair and reportedly considered

challenging the outcome in court. Ultimately, given
Hichilema's large margin of victory and reported U.S. and
other behind-the-scenes diplomatic pressure, Lungu
accepted the results and conceded defeat, permitting a
constitutional transfer of power to Hichilema.
2021 Election: Controversies
Several controversies preceded the 2021 vote. One centered on
Lungu's eligibility for a third term, which the Constitutional Court
ruled was legal, given the partial nature of his first term. (He won that
term in a 2015 by-election to choose a successor to President
Michael Sata, who died in late 2014, and complete Sata's term. In
2016, Lungu won a full term.) The Lungu government also tried-but
failed-to pass a wide-ranging constitutional amendment bill. The bill
would have broadly expanded executive power and amended
presidential election laws in a manner that critics saw as intended to
enable Lungu to eke out a narrow win in an anticipated close 2021
race and continue in office with broadened authorities.
The opposition also interpreted Electoral Commission (EC) decisions
to scrap an existing voter register, rapidly compile a new one in late
2020, and not allow independent auditing of the new registry as
favoring Lungu. The new registry significantly expanded the number of
voters in historical PF strongholds and decreased in those in pro-
UPND areas. The EC also drew criticism for suspending campaigning
to dampen election violence and COVID-19 transmission risks. The
action allegedly targeted UPND activities primarily, however; critics
asserted that PF-affiliated state officials continued to campaign the
guise of carrying out official business.
H ichilema: Backgroun d and Priorities
Hichilema, born in 1962 in a rural southern town, grew up
herding cattle. He later earned several higher education
degrees, including an MBA, and headed local affiliates of
two blue chip accounting and business consulting firms. He
also has been a private enterprise promoter and investor
active in the finance, health, tourism, and other sectors.
Hichilema's political career began in 2006, when he was
selected to be the UPND's leader and presidential nominee
after the death of UPND founder Anderson Mazoka.
Hichilema proved to be a vocal opposition leader and was
repeatedly detained or questioned by police, often on
arguably dubious grounds after sparring with incumbent
governments. Political tensions between the UPND and the
PF increased after Lungu's 2016 re-election. In 2017,
Hichilema was arrested on treason charges, though the case
was later suspended and he was released after mediation by
the Commonwealth. Political tensions then decreased for a
time, but grew again in 2019 and 2020 in advance of the
2021 polls and over issues such as the government's
attempt to amend the constitution (see Textbox above).
Hichilema's stated priorities are to promote good
governance and economic growth, foster fiscal and debt
sustainability, and reduce poverty, notably through efforts

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