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C o n gr e s s o n a e s a c S e r i c
0
Updated April 14, 2021
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs
Overview
North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons and
missile programs despite UN Security Council sanctions
and high-level diplomatic efforts. North Korea is observing
a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range
missile testing. Recent ballistic missile tests and an October
2020 military parade suggest that North Korea is continuing
to build a nuclear warfighting capability designed to evade
regional ballistic missile defenses. Such an approach likely
reinforces a deterrence and coercive diplomacy strategy-
lending more credibility as it demonstrates capability-but
it also raises questions about crisis stability and escalation
control. Congress may choose to examine U.S. policy in
light of these advances.
In the April 2018 Panmunjom Declaration by North and
South Korea and the June 2018 U.S.-North Korea Joint
Statement, Kim Jong Un pledged to improve relations and
work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula. However, the Director of National Intelligence
(DNI) said in his 2019 threat assessment to Congress that
North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its nuclear
weapons and production capabilities, even as it seeks to
negotiate partial denuclearization steps to obtain key US
and international concessions. Trump and Kim held a
second summit in 2019 but were unable to reach agreement.
North Korean statements describe North Korea's nuclear
arsenal as a deterrent to U.S. nuclear war threats. The
U.S. intelligence community's 2021 annual threat
assessment said North Korean leaders view nuclear
weapons as the ultimate deterrent against foreign
intervention. Kim Jong Un said at the 2016 Workers' Party
Congress that nuclear weapons of the DPRK can be used
only by a final order of the Supreme Commander of the
Korean People's Army [Kim Jong Un] to repel invasion or
attack from a hostile nuclear weapons state and make
retaliatory strikes.
Nuclear Testing
North Korea has tested a nuclear explosive device six times
since 2006. Each test produced underground blasts
progressively higher in magnitude and estimated yield.
North Korea conducted its most recent test on September 3,
2017. A North Korean press release stated it had tested a
hydrogen bomb (or two-stage thermonuclear warhead) that
it was perfecting for delivery on an intercontinental ballistic
missile. In April 2018, North Korea announced that it had
achieved its goals, would no longer conduct nuclear tests,
and would close down its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. It
dynamited the entrances to two test tunnels in May 2018
prior to the first Trump-Kim summit in front of a group of
journalists. In an October 2018 meeting with Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo, Kim Jong Un invited inspectors to
visit the [test site] to confirm that it has been irreversibly
dismantled, but this has not yet occurred.
Nuclear Material Production
and Warheads
North Korea reportedly continues to produce fissile
material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) for
weapons. North Korea restarted its plutonium production
facilities after it withdrew from a nuclear agreement in
2009, and is operating at least one centrifuge enrichment
plant at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. During the
September 2018 North-South Korea Pyongyang Summit,
the North stated it would permanently disable the
Yongbyon facilities if the United States took
corresponding measures. U.S. officials have said that
other clandestine enrichment facilities likely exist. News
reports in August 2017 said that one component of the
intelligence community (IC), the U.S. Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA), estimated a stockpile of up to 60 nuclear
warheads. Some experts have estimated that North Korea
could produce enough nuclear material for an additional
seven warheads per year.
According to the U.S. IC, North Korea aims to develop a
nuclear warhead that is miniaturized, or sufficiently
lightweight and small enough to mount on a long-range
ballistic missile. As of July 2017, a DIA assessment and
some outside observers believed North Korea had achieved
the level of miniaturization required to fit a nuclear device
on weapons ranging across the spectrum of its missiles,
from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).
Delivery Vehicles
U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions prohibit North
Korea's development of the means of delivering
conventional and nuclear payloads, in addition to the
nuclear weapons themselves. UNSC resolutions ban all
ballistic missile tests by North Korea. A ballistic missile is
a projectile powered by a rocket engine until it reaches the
apogee of its trajectory, at which point it falls back to earth
using earth's gravity. They are categorized as short-range,
medium-range, or intercontinental based on the distance
from the launch site they can strike a target. Ballistic
missiles can deliver nuclear and large conventional
payloads at high speed and over great distances.
North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and delivery
systems that possess certain critical features: mobility,
reliability, potency, precision, and survivability. Mobile
weapons have increased survivability compared with fixed
launch sites and static stockpiles. Reliability, potency,
precision, and in-flight maneuverability work together to
maximize the impact of North Korea's limited quantity of
weapons, launchers, and warheads. A key element to North
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