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Updated  December  10, 2020


Burkina Faso


Burkina Faso has become  a stark symbol of worsening
security trends in West Africa's Sahel region. Since 2016,
Islamist insurgent groups have asserted control over parts of
the country and carried out terrorist attacks in the capital,
Ouagadougou.   Some have ties to the conflict in neighboring
Mali, and to Al Qaeda or the Islamic State. The government
has struggled to counter insurgent gains despite
international backing and military aid, while state security
forces and militia groups have been implicated in severe
human  rights abuses. The conflict has crippled health and
education systems in parts of the country and deepened
food insecurity. Over a million Burkinabe were internally
displaced as of late 2020, nearly double the number a year
earlier, according to U.N. data. The COVID-19 pandemic
has also brought new health and economic hardships.
President Roch Marc Christian Kabor6 was reelected in
November   2020 to a second five-year term. Security threats
prevented polling stations from opening in multiple
districts, and opposition leaders initially decried the results
as fraudulent. Despite a comfortable margin of victory,
Kabor6  appears likely to face ongoing public demands for
greater security, job creation, governance reforms, and
accountability. Opposition presidential candidates called for
peace talks with jihadist groups, which Kabor6 opposes as
does France, the country's most significant external
counterterrorism partner.
Kabor6's first election to the presidency in 2015 capped a
yearlong political transition that began when protesters,
backed by some  military commanders, ousted semi-
authoritarian President Blaise Compaor6. A towering figure
in West African politics, Compaor6 had come to power in a
1987 coup; his latest attempt to evade term limits by
changing the constitution sparked the protests that unseated
him. In mid-2015, a counter-coup by Compaor6  loyalists
nearly derailed the civilian-led transitional government, but
protesters and conventional army units ultimately induced
the coup leaders to stand down.


In January 2016, gunmen opened  fire at a Ouagadougou
hotel and coffee shop popular with foreigners, killing 30
people including an American. An Islamist insurgency
known  as Ansarul Islam emerged in the rural north around
the same time, targeting schools, local officials, and
individuals accused of collaborating with the state. Attacks
escalated in 2017 after the terrorist groups that had claimed
the Ouagadougou  attack  Algerian-origin Al Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb  (AQIM)  and Al Murabitoun, an
offshoot  merged  with two Mali-based groups to form the
Group  for Supporting Islam and Muslims (aka JNIM). In
2018, JNIM  clamed a complex  assault on the national
military headquarters and the French embassy in the capital.
U.N. sanctions investigators report that JNIM and Ansarul
Islam are separate groups that are mutually supportive.


Figure  I. Burkina Faso at a Glance

   CapiaW: Ouagadougou

   size: iighn N rger thon c olor ad        *
   Popuiatknm 208 rni lkn              nU   N
   Languages: Fm cn<h ofkihml

   Religions: Musim 62, Roman
   Cac 23     traditonaan mist 8A
   Protestelt 7,;.  !ther'one / (2010 estJ
   Ethnicities: Moss 52'% F'an (Pe % Gurrno 7%, Bob 5%

   Te., ege$a %   ,  espcifie % (210
   ,ife expectancy: 62.7 years
   Adult Iiteracy: 4I1' (maie 50%, fem al ?3f (018)
   GOP growth / per capita: 2 , -769
   Key exports: Ged cotn ivsn

Sources: CIA World Factbook and IMF; 2020 estimates unless noted.

The conflict has primarily affected the north and east, with
signs of spillover into the countries of coastal West Africa,
to the south. Local security forces and civilians have been
the primary victims of insurgent violence. In the north,
Ansarul Islam and JNIM  have exploited ethnic tensions and
perceptions of state neglect, as well as grievances over
corruption, patronage politics, social stratification, and land
disputes. The east is a stronghold of the Islamic State-
Greater Sahara (IS-GS), which first emerged as an AQIM
splinter faction and has reportedly cultivated ties with local
criminal networks. IS-GS notably claimed the October 2017
deadly ambush  of U.S. troops in nearby Niger. Islamic State
propaganda  has claimed IS-GS attacks as the work of its
Nigerian-origin affiliate, the Islamic State-West Africa
Province; per U.N. investigators, the two affiliates have a
logistical relationship but remain operationally distinct.
Several factors may explain why conflict spread so quickly
in Burkina Faso despite a history of religious and ethnic
tolerance. Minority Christian dominance of the civil service
and political class had reportedly spurred sectarian tensions.
Mali-based insurgents appear to have lent support to
Burkinabe  allies, and have long threatened to attack
countries, such as Burkina Faso, that contribute troops to
the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Mali. Compaor6's ouster
in 2014, and the decision to dissolve his elite presidential
guard after the 2015 coup attempt, arguably disrupted the
security apparatus, which in any case had little prior combat
experience. These events may also have interrupted
backchannel communications   between Islamist militants
and Burkinabe  security officials. Compaor6 hosted talks
with Malian armed  groups in 2012, and his associates
participated in reputedly lucrative hostage negotiations.
Five years into the conflict, state counterinsurgency tactics
also appear to be driving insurgent recruitment and violence


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