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Social Security, Deficits, and Debt


Social Security is a self-financing program that covers an
estimated 178 million workers and will provide monthly
benefits to about 64 million beneficiaries in 2020. The
Social Security program is composed of the Old-Age and
Survivors Insurance (OASI) program and the Disability
Insurance (DI) program, commonly referred to on a
combined basis as OASDI. Social Security, or OASDI, is
the federal government's single largest program in terms of
both the number of people affected (i.e., covered workers
and beneficiaries) and its finances (i.e., revenues and
payments).

The Social Security program is primarily financed through
a payroll tax (employers and workers each pay 6.2%),
which is applied to covered earnings up to an annual limit
($137,700 in 2020). A second source of funding is from the
federal income tax imposed on a portion of Social Security
benefits of some beneficiaries. These tax revenues (i.e.
noninterest revenues) are used to pay monthly benefits. By
law, any surplus arising when noninterest revenues are
greater than total costs is loaned to the rest of the federal
government, creating assets in the form of interest-bearing
U.S. Treasury securities. These securities are known as
special issues and are nonmarketable (i.e., not available for
public purchase or sale). This process provides a third
source of income, the interest payments those investments
generate. This In Focus examines the relationship of the
Social Security trust funds to the rest of government and
how this impacts federal deficits and the federal debt.

'. ,e Trust F   ,'
A trust find is an accounting mechanism that allows a
program to track revenues and costs and, if necessary,
provides a means to hold any accumulated assets, such as
cash surpluses. The trust funds are dedicated to spend on
current and future scheduled monthly benefits. The trust
funds provide automatic spending authority to pay benefits
without the need for Congress to periodically re-authorize
the spending. The OASI and DI programs are two legally
distinct trust funds and do not have the authority to borrow
from each other. Tax revenues are credited to each
program's trust fund according to the percentage set in
statute, and payments to each program's beneficiaries are
debited from its respective trust fund. Any interest earned
on asset reserves held in the trust funds is also credited to
the respective trust fund.

Section 201 of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. §401)
requires tax revenues not immediately needed for current
costs (i.e., current monthly benefits) to be invested in
interest bearing U.S. Treasury securities. Additionally, any
interest income from asset reserves held in the trust funds is
invested in government securities. During periods of short-
term surpluses-in which incoming tax revenues exceed


outgoing costs this investment process results in Social
Security revenues being exchanged for Treasury securities.
Said differently, during times of surpluses, Social Security
is essentially lending cash to the General Fund of the
Treasury or the rest of government. Such lending from
one part of the federal government to another part is called
intragovernmental debt. Surpluses that are converted into
government securities and held in the trust funds become
indistinguishable from other revenues in the general fund.

      Annual OASDI Surpluses and Deficits
     When annual income (tax revenues plus interest income)
      is greater than annual costs, the program is said to be in
      surplus. Alternatively, when annual income is less than
      annual costs, the program is in a deficit. Under the 2019
      Board of Trustees' intermediate assumptions, the
      combined OASDI program will be in deficit starting in
      2021.
  .   When annual tax revenues are greater than annual costs,
      the program is operating a cash surplus. Conversely,
      when annual tax revenues are less than annual costs, the
      program is operating a cash deficit. On a combined
      OASDI basis, the program has been operating cash
      deficits since 2010. These are also referred to as short
      term surpluses or deficits, respectively. Unlike surpluses
      and deficits described above, short-term cash surpluses
      and cash deficits do not include interest income.

Conversely, times of short-term deficits in which
outgoing costs exceed incoming tax revenues result in the
opposite transaction taking place. With a short-term deficit,
Social Security would redeem trust fund asset reserves held
in U.S. Treasury securities for cash. Said differently, this
reverse transaction would result in the general fund paying
back the Social Security trust funds for amounts previously
borrowed. The trust funds' holdings represent the amount
of money that the general fund, or the rest of government,
owes the trust funds. A trust fund can redeem securities so
long as the trust fund balance is positive: once depleted, a
trust fund no longer has Treasury securities to redeem to
augment income during a time of program deficit. For
Social Security, this means the amount of scheduled
benefits that could be paid would be determined solely by
incoming tax revenues.

Under current law, the trust funds do not have the authority
to borrow money from the general fund or outside creditors
after they are depleted. That is, the trust funds cannot issue
debt obligations to pay for benefits. For this reason,
maintaining a positive trust fund balance (or sufficient
continuing tax revenues) is important, if tax revenues are
not sufficient to pay scheduled benefits. If holdings were to
be depleted, and continuing reserves and tax revenue were


June 1, 2020


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