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August 17, 2016


The Federal Budget: Understanding Fiscal Outcomes


The budgetary power of Congress is a core responsibility
that affects national economic conditions and future policy
choices. This In Focus summarizes the role of Congress in
the federal budget process, describes the key budget
categories, and discusses recent budgetary trends and
projections.


The legislative powers of Congress over the federal budget
are collectively known as the power of the purse. These
powers include the ability to collect and disburse resources
and to borrow from the public, and are more formally
defined as spending, revenues, and debt in federal budget
terminology. Spending moves resources from the
government to individuals, firms, and institutions.
Revenues move resources in the opposite direction. Debt
results from federal government borrowing. Budget
outcomes (like how much revenue is raised or outlays are
spent) are often measured annually over a fiscal year,
which begins October 1 and ends September 30.

Federal spending is measured in two ways. Budget
authority allows for federal agencies to enter into
obligations. Outlays are federal funds disbursed to fulfill
obligations paid by the Treasury. For example, if Congress
appropriates $1 million for a program through legislation,
that $1 million represents budget authority. However, no
outlays occur until Treasury makes payments from the $1
million appropriated by Congress. Typically there is a lag
between when budget authority is granted and when outlays
occur. In some cases, appropriated funds are never
disbursed.

Spending programs are often split into three components in
budgeting discussions. Discretionary spending refers to
spending that is controlled by appropriations acts. This
includes most spending for defense programs and federal
agencies, and is typically approved on an annual schedule
known as the budget cycle. Mandatory spending
represents federal spending controlled outside of
appropriations acts. Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid spending comprise most of mandatory spending,
and are not usually tied to the budget cycle. Net interest
spending equals government payments on federal debt
offset by interest payments received from loans and federal
trust funds. The amount of federal debt and interest rates
determine the size of net interest payments.

Federal revenues come from individual income taxes,
corporate income taxes, payroll taxes, and many other
sources. Income taxes include the individual income tax,
which draws from a varying percentage of personal
earnings; and the corporate income tax, which draws from
a percentage of C corporation profits (varying by profit
level). Payroll taxes are another major source of revenue,


and include matching wage taxes on employers and
employees that contribute to Social Security and Medicare
trust funds. The government also receives money from
hundreds of other taxes, fees, and fines, including excise
taxes (taxes on certain consumption), estate and gift taxes
(taxes on transfers of certain property), customs duties
(taxes on imports), and Federal Reserve earnings.

The federal government incurs a deficit when outlays
exceed revenues in a given year. If instead federal revenues
exceed outlays, then the difference generated is known as a
surplus. As deficits and surpluses are measured over the
course of a defined period of time (the fiscal year), they are
sometimes referred to as flow variables. Debt
measurements may be taken at any point in time and
represent the accumulation of all previous net government
borrowing activity (sometimes described as stock
variables). Federal debt increases when there are net budget
deficits and outflows made for federal credit programs and
with increases in intragovernmental debt, which is
generated by trust fund surpluses. Budget surpluses, net
inflows to credit programs, and decreases in
intragovernmental debt reduce federal debt.



Figure I. Inflation-Adjusted Federal Surpluses and
Deficits, FYI 962-FY201 5
(as a % of Gross Domestic Product)


Source: Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table
1.2.
Figure 1 shows the inflation-adjusted federal budget
outcomes from FY1962 through FY2015. From FY1962
through FY2015, federal outlays exceeded revenues by an
average of 2.6% of annual gross domestic product (GDP).
(When comparing deficit and debt totals over time,
measuring their values as a percentage of GDP helps to
account for the effects of inflation.) Over those 54 years,


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