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1 [1] (October 10, 2017)

handle is hein.crs/govcdyu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: '. ~**\**\ &~ ~ riE SE ~$rCh &~ ~ ~ gognpo go g , q 'S a X 11LULANJILiN, Updated October 10, 2017 Burma's Peace Process: Challenges Ahead in 2017 Burma (Myanmar) has been riven by a low-grade civil war between government forces and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) since it became an independent sovereign state on January 4, 1948. The Burmese military, or Tatmadaw, used the ongoing conflict-and the perceived risk that some states could secede from the federated government-to justify seizing power from a democratically elected civilian government on March 2, 1962. Over the next 50 years, the Tatmadaw was unable either to negotiate an end to the civil war, or to win victory on the battlefield. In 2011, Burma's military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), transferred power to a mixed civilian/military government headed by President Them Sein, a retired general and ex-SPDC prime minister. President Them Sein made negotiating a nationwide ceasefire a priority, but his efforts were only partially successful. While 8 of the more than 20 EAOs signed a ceasefire agreement on October 15, 2015, most of the larger EAOs did not sign because of the exclusion of some of the smaller EAOs from the ceasefire agreement. Since then, fighting between the Tatmadaw and several of the non- signatory EAOs has continued in the states of Kachin, Karen, Rakhine, and Shan, resulting in both civilian and military casualties. Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) took control of Burma's Union Parliament in January 2016 and the nation's executive branch in April 2016, after winning a landslide victory in parliamentary elections held in November 2015. Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD have announced that ending Burma's low-grade civil war is one of the highest priorities for the new government. KUC as g 0b*f . .,.t Burma is an ethnically diverse nation, in which the ethnic Bamar are a majority of the nation's population, but several other ethnic minorities-such as the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan-are the majority of the population in some regions. Burma's 1948 constitution established the Union of Burma as a federated nation, in which the separate states retained a fair amount of autonomy and the right to secede from the Union after 10 years. The 1948 constitution was based in part on the provisions of the 1947 Panglong Agreement, negotiated between General Aung San (Aung San Suu Kyi's father) and leaders of the Chin, Kachin, and Shan ethnic minority communities. The Panglong Agreement accepted in principle the full autonomy in internal administration for the Frontier Areas, in exchange for the ethnic minority communities joining the Bamar majority, who generally live in central Burma, to form a federated nation. In the view of most of the EAOs, Burma's central government and the Tatmadaw have never lived up to the promises of the Panglong Agreement. Instead, these EAOs contend, the Bamar majority has used the central government and the Tatmadaw to dominate and oppress Burma's ethnic minorities. To the Tatmadaw and Burma's past military juntas, the EAOs are insurgents threatening the nation's territorial integrity. Before it will agree to a ceasefire, the Tatmadaw insists that the EAOs agree to the Three Main National Causes-non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity, and the perpetuation of sovereignty of the existing government. In September 2015, the Tamadaw set out its six principles for peace, which require the EAOs agree to remain part of Burma, accept the 2008 constitution, submit to national sovereignty (the legitimacy of the current central government), and abide by the laws of the central government. Burma's peace process involves a complex interplay of several issues, including the amount of autonomy that states would retain within the federated nation; the status of the 2008 constitution; control over natural resources; the future status of the ethnic militias; the selection of participants in peace negotiations; and the sequencing of steps to peace. Most of the differences are between the Tatmadaw and the EAOs. However, the EAOs are a diverse group, and often disagree among themselves on the best approach to relations with the Tatmadaw and the NLD-led government. Like the previous Them Sein government, the current NLD- led government frequently finds itself positioned as mediators between the Tatmadaw and the EAOs. Most of the EAOs and the UNFC seek a more decentralized federated union in which the ethnic states have a high degree of autonomy, which they contend is consistent with the Panglong Agreement. The Tatmadaw prefers a stronger central government with less state autonomy, as is reflected in the 2008 constitution. The Tatmadaw insists that the 2008 constitution be maintained, but may be willing to accept some amendments. Some of the EAOs, however, have called for drafting a new constitution more consistent with the Panglong Agreement. Other EAOs appear willing to accept the 2008 constitution, provided that it is amended to provide the ethnic states with sufficient autonomy. Co c,- v, r, Mauw &es&ourc&\s Burma is a nation rich in natural resources, including some of the world's finest ruby and jade mines located in several of the ethnic states. Most of Burma's natural resources are .O 'T

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