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1 [1] (July 26, 2018)

handle is hein.crs/crsmthzzbgr0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Zimbabwe: Forthcoming Elections On July 30, 2018, Zimbabwe is slated to hold presidential, parliamentary and local elections-the first since the November 2017 transfer of presidential power from Robert Mugabe to Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mugabe's departure, after 37 years in office, raised hopes for the resolution of a persistent economic crisis and for a democratic transition ending a long pattern of human rights violations and undemocratic governance-and an end to the years of international condemnation, sanctions, and isolation generated by such trends. Mnangagwa, a former close Mugabe ally, has committed to a range of economic and governance reforms. He has also pledged that these elections will be free, fair, and peaceful. The elections' credibility will determine the relative legitimacy of the next government and its ability to mend relations with the international financial institutions (IFIs) and Western governments. This, in turn, could bolster the government's ability to negotiate a sovereign debt arrears payment deal, a critical step toward returning the economy to health. A dearth of capital is a major factor underpinning the dire economic situation, and Zimbabwe's longstanding debt arrears have cut it off from new credit. A legitimate election could also spur increased foreign investment and trade. Western donors view free and fair elections as a key prerequisite for increased cooperation and engagement. Election Payers and Prospects The presidential front-runners are Mnangagwa, aged 75, the presidential candidate of the Zimbabwe National Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and Nelson Chamisa, aged 40, of the MDC Alliance. The MDC Alliance consists of the main Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) political party and former MDC splinter factions. A June/July 2018 poll by Afrobarometer found that ZANU-PF, the majority party, was favored by 40% of respondents (48% in rural areas and 26% in urban areas), while 37% (49% in urban areas and 30% in rural areas) favored the MDC Alliance. Both parties face internal divisions, as well as many smaller rival parties-including two minor opposition party coalitions and two parties started by Mugabe supporters- and there are currently 22 presidential candidates (down from 23). ZANU-PF's primary elections featured fierce intra-party competition, and incumbent legislators won only 28% of these races. Chamisa is opposed by a rival MDC leader, Thokozani Khupe, who is running on a separate MDC ticket. She disputed Chamisa's selection by party leaders to serve as the MDC's presidential candidate after the early 2018 death of Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC's longtime leader and former prime minister (2009-2013). Many believe a ZANU-PF victory is likely, given the party's national reach and opposition disunity, but not inevitable. Broad support for Mugabe's ouster and optimism about Mnangagwa's reform pledges may prompt many voters to give ZANU-PF the benefit of the doubt. ZANU-PF's rural strength-and citizens' memories of past violence and intimidation by ZANU-PF militants and the state security apparatus-may also aid the party. Close links between Mnangagwa and the military could be another advantage. An April/May 2018 Afrobarometer poll found that 41% of those surveyed viewed the military's intervention as the right thing to do, and another 40% saw it as wrong but necessary. ZANU-PF-military ties, however, also carry risks for the party. Large majorities of respondents to the survey disapproved of a military role in governance or politics. Mugabe's 2017 Resignation Mugabe resigned as president in 2017 to preempt a parliamentary impeachment vote orchestrated by pro- Mnangagwa elements of ZANU-PF. The ZANU-PF action followed an armed intervention led by Constantino Chiwenga, then head of the armed forces and now Vice President. It was spurred by rivalry between ZANU-PF factions over the succession of Mugabe, then aged 93, as head of the party and as president. Mugabe's apparent decision to sideline a pro- Mnangagwa old guard faction linked to the security forces in favor of one led by Mugabe's wife prompted the military to intervene and facilitate Mugabe's removal. Eectoral Administration To demonstrate its commitment to free and fair elections, the government invited Western monitors to observe the vote for the first time since the early 2000s. Eleven international organizations, including two U.S.-funded groups, 26 countries, and other entities, are slated to send monitoring teams. In addition, Mnangagwa publicly called on ZANU-PF to respect fair political competition. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has made substantial election preparation progress since a change in the agency's leadership in early 2018, and levels of public trust in ZEC have risen moderately since 2017, according to Afrobarometer. The ZEC has biometrically registered 5.6 million voters, and put in place measures to prevent multiple voting, allow voters to digitally verify their registrations, and improve the integrity of assisted voting. The ZEC has also increased engagement with parties and civil society organizations (CSOs), and opposition parties have faced fewer restrictions on their ability to campaign and organize than in past elections. The ZEC and political parties have strengthened an existing political party code of conduct, and many parties have signed an elections peace pledge. The High Court recently upheld a constitutional ban on partisan political activity by local chiefs, although the plaintiff is appealing the decision. Free and Fair Elections? Despite positive progress by the ZEC, CSOs and opposition parties have expressed a range of concerns regarding allegedly non-transparent and legally or procedurally www.crs.gov 7-5700 0 July 26, 2018

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