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                                                                                                  August 8, 2018

The European Deterrence Initiative: A Budgetary Overview


Background
When  the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union fell, U.S.
force numbers in Europe decreased from about 315,000
deployed personnel in 1989, to about 65,000 as of March
2018. In view of this reduction and hostile Russian military
actions in Ukraine and across Europe, Eastern European
allies have voiced concern that NATO may not be
adequately postured to defend them against Russian
aggression.
The European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) began as the
European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) in June 2014 to
reassure NATO  allies in Central and Eastern Europe of a
continued U.S. commitment to their national security after
the Russian military intervention in Ukraine that March. In
FY2017  Congress increased funding substantially, offering
further military support for NATO allies Lithuania, Latvia,
Estonia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. EDI has enabled
the continuous nine-month rotational deployment of an
Armored  Brigade Combat Team  (ABCT)  in Europe of
about 3,300 personnel since February 2017, along with a
Combat  Aviation Brigade of about 1,700 personnel that
provides rotational helicopter support to training and other
missions across Europe.
The current rotation of forces allows each U.S. ABCT to
experience deploying to Central and Eastern European
countries. One potential benefit is that it may increase
overall U.S. and NATO readiness. A possible concern
however, is that a rotational force may be more expensive
over time than a permanent military presence in the region.
The Polish government offered in May 2018 to pay up to $2
billion for infrastructure to support a permanent U.S.
military presence there, along with the use of state
infrastructure by U.S. forces. A permanent presence may
have the opportunity to foster closer professional and
cultural ties with a host nation and allied military
counterparts, and may signal greater U.S. resolve to deter
Russian aggression.

FY201   5-FY20   19  Budget
EDI funding enables the Department of Defense (DOD) to
resource Operation Atlantic Resolve (OAR), the mission
through which European Command   (EUCOM)   is
coordinating U.S. national military efforts in support of
NATO's  response to Russian aggression.
Annual funding for EDI is represented in Figure 1. Of note,
the FY2019 EDI  budget request contains $6.5 billion, a
more than six-fold increase from FY2015. FY2018
appropriations for EDI are not currently publicly available.
Appropriations associated with EDI are located in multiple
titles and budget lines. The FY2019 National Defense
Authorization Act (H.R. 5515) would authorize $6.3 billion
for EDI, along with $250 million for Ukraine security
assistance.


Figure I. EDI Budget  FY20 I 5-FY20 19
(in millions of dollars)

  1-                                      $6,531


      FY2015   FY2016   FY2O17   FY2018   FY2019
      Enacted Enacted   Enacted  Request  Request

Source: Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), European
Reassurance Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2017), published February
2016; European Deterrence Initiative, Fiscal Year (FY) 2019,
published February 2018.
EDI has included separate funding for Ukraine each year
since the inception of the program. Since 2014, the United
States has provided over $850 million in security assistance
to Ukraine through the Department of State and DOD. The
President's FY2019 EDI budget request seeks $200 million
of security assistance to the Ukrainian government in the
fonns of intelligence support, personnel training,
equipment and logistics support, supplies, and other
services. The assistance is meant to help Ukraine maintain
its sovereignty, sustain a viable defense sector, and improve
its operations with NATO and allied forces. Section 1246 of
the conference report of the FY2019 National Defense
Authorization Act (H.R. 5515) includes an additional $50
million for anti-armor weapon systems and other lethal
assistance.

The FY2019  EDI budget request would support a total of
9,903 active, reserve, and guard personnel in EUCOM.
These include 9,095 Army, 458 Air Force, and 350 Navy
personnel participating in EDI activities in Europe.
According to a RAND  report regarding NATO's eastern
flank, Russian forces are currently capable of occupying the
capitals of both Latvia and Estonia within three days of the
start of hostilities. EDI's efforts in prepositioning
equipment, deploying rotational forces, and improving
infrastructure across the continent are intended to increase
the deterrence ability of NATO military forces, by allowing
them to respond quickly to military aggression.


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