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CRS INSIGHT


Election in Germany

September 18, 2017 (IN10780)




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Paul Belkin, Analyst in European Affairs (pbkn( rs  lY, 7-0220)

Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking a fourth term in Germany's parliamentary election scheduled for September 24,
2017. Merkel has led Europe's largest and most prosperous country for 12 years and is widely viewed as the most
influential political leader in Europe. Opinion polls suggest she will be reelected comfortably.

Merkel's campaign has stressed the value of continuity and predictability during a time of flux in Europe and beyond.
While presiding over a period of economic prosperity in Germany, Merkel has been confronted with crises such as
significant migration and refugee flows, Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Greek debt crisis, the United Kingdom's
decision to leave the European Union (EU), and a rise in terrorism.

Within Germany, the arrival of approximately 1 1 million refugees and migrants in 2015 created considerable pressure
for Merkel. Perhaps most notable has been the rise of an anti-immigrant party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD),
which is poised to become the first far-right party represented in Germany's federal parliament since World War II.
Nevertheless, more than 60% of German voters express SUpport for Merkels leradrhip and moderate sensibilities.

Regardless of the outcome, analysts do not expect a significant shift in Germany's foreign policy. The leading parties are
generally supportive of Merkel's policies on the EU, NATO, and international cooperation. Despite near universal
criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump across Germany's political spectrum, the major political parties emphasize the
need to maintain a strong, cooperative relationship with the United States.

Main Political Parties and Key Election Issues

Pollsindicate that the following six political parties will surpass the 5% vote threshold required for entry into the lower
house of the German parliament, the Bundestag:

    Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), 36%. Chancellor Merkel's center-right
      political group of the CDU and its Bavarian sister-party, the CSU.
    Social Democratic Party (SPD), 22%. Center-left party led by former president of the European Parliament
      Martin Schulz.
    Alternative for Germany (AfD), 11%. Far-right, anti-immigrant party.
    The Left, 10%. Far-left party that is an outgrowth of East Germany's former ruling communist party.
    The Free Democratic Party (FDP), 9%. Economically and socially liberal party that has traditionally been a

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