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CRS INSIGHT
Elections Strengthen Georgia's Ruling Party
October 31, 2016 (IN10596)
Related Author
* -C0.~.Welt
Cory Welt, Analyst in European Affairs (.cwe t2 r1ocgox, 7-0530)
On October 8, 2016, and October 30, 2016, the country of Georgia held parliamentary elections, which dom.tic and
international observers assessed as democratic, despite isolated violations and violent incidents. The elections tested the
resilience of Georgia's ruling party, the center-left Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia (GDDG), founded by oligarch
Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012 to unseat the United National Movement (UNM), formerly led by Mikheil Saakashvili.
GDDG won a resounding victory and is on track to enjoy a constitutional majority.
Support for the Georgian Dream
GDDG's victory reflects broad but measured support for the ruling party. GDDG has positioned itself as a pro-European
but socially conservative force and has presided over a period of slow economic growth. GDDG won 49% of the party-
list vote, through which around half of the 150-seat parliament is elected, and nearly all of the single-member races
(mostly in the second round). Thus, GDDG likely has secured a constitutional three-fourths majority. GDDG's only true
competitor was the UNM, which received 27% of the party vote and is expected to have less than 20% of the seats in
parliament.
Despite GDDG's large victory, popular enthusiasm for the party appears to be constrained. Turnout was relatively low,
at 52% in the first round and 38% in the second (turnout in the 2012 election was 61%). Frequently cited preelection
polls commissioned by the U.S. National Demcratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute pegged
GDDG and UNM as close competitors with no more than 20% support each, accompanied by a large percentage of
undecided voters. Many undecided voters may have chosen to support the ruling party only recently.
The election reflects the reduced influence of the formerly dominant UNM. The party's decline is attributed in part to
the imprisonment or indictment of several senior UNM officials (including Saakashvili) on charges party supporters
consider to be political, as well as to harassment of party activists and defections by UNM parliamentarians. Analysts
also have .ohery...d that the UNM campaign failed to reach beyond its base and may have been overshadowed by
Saakashvili, a polarizing figure who refram[ed] the elections as a referendum on his return to Georgia from Ukraine
(in 2015, Saakashvili took Ukrainian citizenship and was appointed governor of the Odessa region).
Support for Western Integration
After a GDDG-led coalition defeated the UNM in 2012, many foreign observers expressed concern that Ivanishvili and](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.crs/crsmthmaobz0001&div=1&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)
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