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CRS   INSIGHT


Counting Casualties in Syria and Iraq: Process and

Challenges

April 12, 2016 (IN10474)




Related   Authors


   *  .Carla.Eumud

   *  Rhoda Maraesson

      View  More...




Carla E. Humud, Analyst in Middle Eastern and African Affairs (cum ud ar Galov, 7-7314)
Rhoda Margesson,  Specialist in International Humanitarian Policy (rm n(&cr  I    v, 7-0425)
Susan G. Chesser, Senior Research Librarian (schesser(,crs bc gov, 7-9547)

Casualty estimates for the conflicts in Iraq and Syria are inconsistent and unreliable because of a range of
methodological challenges in conducting and reporting counts. Estimates of the number of people who have died
during Syria's civil conflict since March 2011 range from 250,000 to 470,000. In Iraq, the estimated range is between
19,000 and 41,650 deaths since January 2014. This product discusses the difficulties of collecting war-related casualty
data in both countries and provides an overview of some of the current estimated figures available through selected
organizations. CRS is unable to independently track casualties in Syria and Iraq, and cannot verify the data presented.

Methodological Challenges

War-related casualty numbers are generally not precise, particularly when a conflict is ongoing, when civilians and
combatants may  not be easily distinguished, and when insecurity limits access to large parts of the countries in
question. The difficulties associated with counting war-related casualties in Syria and Iraq can be grouped into broad
questions:

   *  Who  is collecting the data? With limited access, most organizations counting casualties in Syria rely on an ad
      hoc network of activists on the ground to collect and corroborate information. For security reasons, groups do not
      release the identities of the sources whose information they use to populate a database of victims and generate a
      final fatalities count. Some groups release only their final fatalities total or their totals by category, disclosing
      neither the raw data nor its source.
   *  Who  is included in the death count? Not all groups counting casualties in Syria include deaths of pro-
      government forces, and those that do vary by tens of thousands. Some death tallies appear to count only Syrian
      nationals, while others include foreign fighters. The Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR), which has the

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