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1 Michael Bennett, et al., Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2025 to 2034 1 (April 24, 2025)

handle is hein.congrec/pjtedcso0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Summary The Congressional Budget Office updates its projec- tions of the 10-year costs of nuclear forces every two years. This report contains CBO's projections for the 2025-2034 period, which are based on the Department of Defense's (DoD's) and the Department of Energy's (DOE's) fiscal year 2025 budget requests, submitted in March 2024. Costs of Current Plans If carried out, DoD's and DOE's plans to operate, sus- tain, and modernize current nuclear forces and purchase new forces would cost a total of $946 billion over the 2025-2034 period, or an average of about $95 billion a year, CBO estimates. That total includes $357 billion to operate and sustain current and future nuclear forces and other supporting activities; $309 billion to modernize strategic and tactical nuclear delivery systems and the weapons they carry; $72 billion to modernize facilities and equipment for the nuclear weapons laboratory complex; $79 billion to modernize command, control, communications, and early-warning systems; and $129 billion to cover potential additional costs in excess of projected budgeted amounts estimated using historical cost growth (see Figure 1). How Costs Have Changed CBO's current estimate of costs for the 2025-2034 period is 25 percent (or $190 billion) larger than its 2023 estimate of $756 billion, which covered the 2023-2032 period. Of that amount, $157 billion comes from differences in CBO's current and 2023 estimates of budgeted amounts for nuclear forces, and $33 bil- lion comes from differences in the agency's estimates of potential additional costs based on historical cost growth. Of the $157 billion increase in budgeted amounts, 59 percent (or $93 billion) is projected to occur from 2025 to 2032-the span of years that overlap in both estimates. The increase during those overlapping years is the result of higher costs for some programs, primarily for developing and fielding the new Sentinel intercon- tinental ballistic missile system, including moderniz- ing silos and other infrastructure; modernizing DoD's command, control, communications, and early-warning systems; and modernizing DOE's production facili- ties. The remaining 41 percent (or $65 billion) of the $157 billion increase in budgeted amounts arises because the 10-year period covered by the current estimate begins and ends two years later than the period covered by the previous estimate. Background Nuclear weapons have been an important component of U.S. national security since they were developed during World War II. During the Cold War, nuclear forces were central to U.S. defense policy, and a large arsenal was built. Since that time, nuclear forces have figured less promi- nently in defense policy than conventional forces have, and for several decades the United States did not develop and field new nuclear weapons or delivery systems, choos- ing instead to sustain or extend the life of existing ones. But the nation's current nuclear forces are reaching the end of their service life, and some delivery systems may not be capable of having their service life extended further. U.S. nuclear forces consist of submarines that launch ballistic missiles (SSBNs), land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bomber aircraft, shorter-range tactical aircraft carrying bombs, and the nuclear warheads that those delivery systems carry. Over the next two decades, essentially all those systems will have to be refurbished or replaced with new systems if All years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. All costs are in nominal dollars (in other words, not adjusted for inflation). Numbers in the text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. In this report, cost refers to budget authority, the amount that would need to be appropriated to implement the Administration's plans.

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