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Letter to the Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. 1 (July 2008)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9070 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                             Peter R. Orszag, Director
U.S. Congress
Washington, DC 20515
July 22, 2008
Honorable John M. Spratt Jr.
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Chairman:
On July 14, 2008, the Administration released a proposal that would temporarily
authorize the Department of the Treasury to purchase obligations and securities of
the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that deal with housing finance-the
Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan
Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that there is a significant
chance-probably better than 50 percent-that the proposed new Treasury
authority would not be used before it expired at the end of December 2009. If the
proposal is enacted, private markets might be sufficiently reassured to provide the
GSEs with adequate capital to continue operations without any infusion of funds
from the Treasury; during that time, it is possible that expectations about the
duration and depth of the housing market downturn may brighten. Under that
scenario, the temporary authority would not be used and thus would involve no
budgetary cost.
In CBO's view, however, that scenario is far from the only possible result.
Indeed, many analysts and traders believe that there is a significant likelihood that
conditions in the housing and financial markets could deteriorate more than
already reflected on the GSEs' balance sheets, and such continuing problems
would increase the probability that this new authority would have to be used.
Taking into account the probability of various possible outcomes, CBO estimates
that the expected value of the federal budgetary cost from enacting this proposal
would be $25 billion over fiscal years 2009 and 2010. That estimate accounts for
both the possibility that federal funds would not have to be expended under the
new authority and the possibility that the government would have to use that
authority to provide assistance to the GSEs.

www.cbo.gov

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