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1 1 (April 15, 2025)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiafdn0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points * The US agicultural sector ----especially farms producing labor-intens;ve crops such as fruits vegetables, and horticultural products-relies on unauthonrzed imrnigirar nts to perform many seasonal and routine tasks US citizenswill generally not do. * Reducing the availabiity ofimmigrantsfor agricu tur; work will increase aborcostsand eventu- ally ead to new technologicai nrovations that irnprove farm aborefficiencyand even technolo- gies thatcan mechanically harvest delicate fruits and vegetab les, * However, in the short terrn, higher production costs forfresh Fruits, vegetabies, and othercom- modities will lead to reduced domestic production, higher levels of imports, less selection tor consumers, and higher food prices, * Further a shift to innovative mechanization of fruit, vegetabe, and horticuitura production is likelyto increasefarm size in those sectors since largerfarms can benefit from neweconromies of size and scale. President Donald Trump has set forth an ambitious plan to reform the federal approach to iunigration pol- icy and entorcement. This pian can broadly be catego- rized into two overarching goals: (i) to enhance border security and stop unauthorized entryand (2) to increase deportation efforts in the United States. The economic effects of changes in imnigration policy are complex and difficult to quantify. Furthermore, some US sectors are more vulnerable to changes in unauthorized immi- grant labor supplythan others. The US agricultural sector is reliant on unauthorized immigrants. Fruit, vegetable, and horticultural (FVHl) farms; dairies; and downstream agricultural proces- sors like meat and failt packers depend on unautho- rized immigrants to perform both seasonal and routine tasks that US citizens will not generally do. Thus, at least in the short term, those farms and industries could incur severe adverse production impacts if the Trump administration successfully achieves its immigration goals. Even farms that do not directly employ tmau- thorized immigrants will be affected by labor scarcity if unauthorized immigrants leave the country. The Agricultural Labor Market In inflation-adjusted terms, real farm wages have been increasing for many years, and farnworkers have become less migratory than they were in the r990s. As a result, the incidence of labor shortages during labor-intensivc scasons like harvest increased during the 2oo0s.3 Since agricultural activitics are time scn- sitive, farms risk losing their entire annual profits if workers are unavailable when needed. In response to the tightening labor supply, efforts to mechanize more agricultural tasks, including harvesting fruits and veg- etables, have increased in recent years. Nevertheless, -~ ii-iKi-iKi2f

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