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2 Washington News 1 (1986)

handle is hein.tera/wingnews0039 and id is 1 raw text is: TAX FOUNDATION SPENDING ANAIXSIS
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Volume 2, Number 1

June 10, 1986

Federal Debt:
Onward and Upward
As Usual?
The Federal government's debt
went over the $2 trillion mark on
April 3, 1986, and was expected
to increase by another one-
quarter to $2.5 trillion in the
next five years -- even if the
Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Deficit
Reduction Act of 1985 achieves
its stated deficit-cutting goals.
Few in Washington expected
GRH to be that successful. When
this report went to press, the
House and Senate were still
arguing over how to put a lid on
deficit spending, which creates
new national debt, in the next
fiscal year (1987) starting
October 1, 1986.
If Congress failed to
implement the fiscal discipline
required by GRH in its opening
rounds, it would be taken as a
signal that debt dependence will
continue to be the way of life in
Washington -- for as long as the
money/credit system holds up.
One small step. The first
small step toward Slowing the
creation of additional Federal
debt -- a reduction of about $11
billion or 4.2% in agencies'
outlays in fiscal year 1986,
ending September 30 -- caused
widespread political heartburn in
the Spring of 1986.
Veterans on the Washington
scene were looking for strong
efforts by various groups wired
into Federal subsidies to circum-
vent even this modest step back

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Since the New Deal greatly
enhanced the intervention of
the Federal government in the
economy, the indebtedness of
the national government has
been growing almost without
letup' In the 40 years since
World War II ended, the Federal
budget has been in balance 8
times. The budget was last in
the black in 1969.
The nramm-Rudman-Hollings
Deficit Reduction Act of 1985
could be a start in the right
direction. By the time fiscal
year 1986 ends September 30,
the nation should know how
serious Congress is about
ending debt dependence.
Washington is not the only
culprit in our national debt
binge, however. Some states
and local governments,
countless individuals, farms
and businesses have piled up a
mountain of debts that, added
to Uncle Sam's IOUs, now total
more thap $7 trillion, twice
the amount of debt outstanding
just six years ago.
The distress in the oil
belt and the farm belt, with
its disastrous impact on banks
and their borrowers, shows how
vulnerable a highly leveraged
economy is to downticks.
Voices of caution have
been raised. The big question
is how much heed will be given
to them.

from debt financing, through back-
door maneuvers such as supple-
mental appropriations or creative
accounting in trust funds. And
the budget for fiscal year 1987,
starting next October 1, will add
another $140-$150 billion to the
national debt -- or more, if the
economy slows and revenues don't
match projections.
Washington's debt binge has
been going on with few interrup-
tions for more than 50 years, and
it seems unlikely to end in the
next five. The binge began when
the Great Depression of the early
1930s brought the advent of the
New Deal, vastly expanded govern-
ment intervention in the economy,
and a new way of looking at debt.
Priming the pump with
Federal deficit spending became
the norm. In the 40 years since
the end of World War II in 1946,
Washington has had 8 balanced
budgets. The last was in 1969.
On the other hand, the Gramm-
Rudman-Hollings law could be a
hopeful start toward balanced
Federal budgets -- if Congress
stays the course.
Slow Down Urge. Several
trends came together to promote a
revived awareness in government
and financial circles of debt's
dangers and costs to the economy,
and the urgency of the need to
put the brakes on debt accumu-
lation.
The most fundamental develop-
ment is a change in the political
climate. Earlier economy drives
in Washington faltered, but in
the Spring of 1986, there appears
to be a solid political base for
a drive to curD the growth of

Copyright 1986 by Tax Foundation, Incorporated, One Thomas Circle, N.W., Suite 500, Washington, D.C. 20005 (202) 822-9050

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