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1 John S. Barry, Fiscal Forecasting: A Perilous Task 1 (2002)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/srbaixz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: January2002 No. 108 The Congressional Budget Of ntly released its updated proj current fiscal year's federal b-L art con now projecte illion and a fisc cm. This chang( led by some tt ition in our nat fact of the mati such swingsmin s( :he course. Fiscal f -ticipatec .nates of: a current U1 year 20 in fiscal I t! most dr :n's histo ice (CBO) ection of udget sur- d and in a year ago, t year defici 103 deficit o position ha,. rcen ange igure 1). Despi fiscal fore base majo relief mea of this varianc . The rest was il and economi, -asting, - legisla rare , th, nerall )jections are I sting is fraugf money andl, most more serious rec experiencing. But exceedingly coml : was due to legislative he result of changing - assumptions (see Tn difficulties with tlon on thlelE c Economic I nciliation Act of 20( et was a welcome legis- is allowed millions of re of their hard-earned ly, has prevented a n than we are currently details of EGTRRA are f lawmakers'n artificial budge lurrences of rreasonbut becaus )n fiscal forecasts a ws. There are 108 ise-ins, )Uts, changc vns, imazingly, becaus ncreasing relianc( entire h u nsets id other such unneces,, the legislation. Most of the unnecessary but )n fiscal forecasts, the ter 2010 -This markst ten 50 surr i diffici ing the years it ercent lus prc ars are years re-estim: plus swung b3 between a prc ulties not the least of w economic outlook of t nito the future. Margins or greater and swings )jections of hundreds o le counti Af error c n deficit) .billions jU ates by CBO ( y $448 billion Djected defici- of last year's i dollars and t of $167 bi )n. Only ab s Sur- range 1lion )ut 20 as passed on a temp Reliance on fiscal dubious economic )nventional wisdom deral debt (caused e rficits or a lack of an iy down outstanding )rg ter nt to a nega between pul major ta arT basis. gislation forecasts also gives ris theories such as the that a high level of ither by annual budge iual surpluses used tc 4 debt) results in high es. There is no conclu- s is true. In fact, the il debt .BO has )f $21 bi S14 billi( )een call $: surpUs ot z8 _ typic tL-

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