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1 Gavin Ekins, October 2015 Taxes and Growth Model Update 1 (2015)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/octxgmu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FOUNDATION BACKGROUND PAPER Oct. 201! The Tax Foundation is a 501(c)(3) non-partisan, non-profit research institution founded in 1937 to educate the public on tax policy. Based in Washington, D.C. our economic and policy analysis is guided by the principles of sound tax policy: simplicity, neutrality, transparency, and stability. (02015 Tax Foundation Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY NC 4.0 Editor, Melodie Bowler Designer, Dan Carvajal Tax Foundation 1325 G Street, NW, Suite 950 Washington, DC 20005 202.464.6200 October 2015 Taxes and Growth Model Update By Gavin Ekins PhD Research Economist The Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model is constantly improved to maintain an up-to- date database of economic factors and to keep pace with new techniques from the economic modeling community. To ensure transparency with the public, the Tax Foundation institutes semi-annual updates of the TAG model. Each estimate from the TAG Model reported by the Tax Foundation identifies the version of the model being used. In general, the model updates follow the release of the Congressional Budget Office's updates to the Budget and Economic Outlook. All model analyses of tax policies after an update employ the same model version until the next release. The formalized revision schedule has two functions: consistency and quality control. One of the objectives of the TAG Model is to make it easier to compare different tax proposals. For maximum consistency when comparing proposals, the model's parameters and features should be held constant between analyses. However, for the estimates to be as accurate as possible, model changes need to be made as new data becomes available, new features are added, and new techniques are developed in the economic modeling community and incorporated in the model. The tension between maintaining consistent scores and improving the TAG Model is addressed by the semi-annual model updates and stating the version of the TAG Model used to produce an estimate. The regular update schedule provides opportunities for others in the economic modeling community to comment on the twice-yearly revisions to the TAG Model and recommend changes for the following update. Using the academic approach of public debate, the Tax Foundation hopes to enhance the accuracy of the TAG Model. The Tax Foundation welcomes constructive comments on the TAG Model and any of the following updates. Please contact ekins@taxfoundation.org with comments or questions regarding the TAG Model. taxfoundation org

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