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1 J. D. Foster, My Favorite Tax Hike, by G.O. Party 1 (1998)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/myikeparxz0001 and id is 1 raw text is: TAX
FOUND)
April 1998,
No. 8

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My Favorite Tax Hike, by G.O. Party

A Republican Congress is working hard to
pass a huge tax increase, and nobody seems to
notice. President Clinton and his Democratic
congressional allies strongly support the tax
increase, even though it falls disproportion-
ately on the poor and middle-income taxpay-
ers, and nobody seems to notice. Even in
Washington, this isn't business as usual. What
are these people smoking?
Tobacco, of course. The central element
of the tobacco settlement working its way
through the Congress is $65 billion in addi-

The s'mPiefdifatj45f b0
ignored is 1/bhat i~oe $65% Iftanqo i!'cg~a
fr-derai revenues is a icr incretpse4 S
smokers,9 no! on #,'he tdsr..Wa
curious, bowevet, is that 4'his &.,tx  mrrease
violates basic Dlemocrani- and.4cwti~a
Principles, and              (tveinec Iete  ic sdoe1/n.

tional federal revenues over the next five
years. It is still unclear whether the tobacco
companies will make these payments as part of
a contractual settlement with the federal
government, or whether Congress will raise
the federal cigarette excise. Politically, the
difference may be important. Economically,
the difference is meaningless - tobacco prices
will increase.
Indeed, higher tobacco prices are a basic
goal of the government in reaching the
settlement. Anti-tobacco forces want prices to
increase to discourage tobacco use.
Perhaps because the tobacco industry
negotiated the $65 billion figure, or perhaps
because the payments may be part of a con-

tractual agreement, there is a sense even
among Republicans that this tax would be paid
by Big Tobacco. The implication, of course,
is that a tax increase on big tobacco compa-
nies would be okay. What nonsense! There is
nothing unique about the tobacco industry
that exempts it from the basic rule that
businesses don't pay taxes; people pay taxes.
The simple fact that seems to be roundly
ignored is that the $65 billion in additional
federal revenues is a tax increase on smokers,
not on the industry. As the companies in-
volved have negotiated this amount, there is
little point in questioning the propriety of
raising this sort of tax revenue. What is
curious, however, is that this tax increase
violates basic Democratic and Republican
principles, and yet neither side is objecting.
The Republicans proclaim themselves the
party of lower taxes and smaller government.
Indeed, a Republican consensus is developing
around a $30 billion income tax cut over the
next five years. A big question is how to pay
for this income tax cut. Senator Pete
Domenici (R-NM), Chairman of the Senate
Budget Committee, has indicated that this
year's budget resolution is not going to have
tax cuts in it that use the Social Security
surplus or the cigarette tax - the cigarette
settlement.
Apparently, Senator Domenici doesn't
want to call this revenue a tax. As the old saw
goes, however, if it looks like a duck and it
quacks like a duck, then it's probably a duck.
Tobacco settlement revenues would come
from higher cigarette prices, consumers would
pay the higher prices, and the revenues would
flow to the Treasury. It's a tax.
Combined with the tobacco settlement
taxes, the Republicans' $30 billion income tax
cut nets out to $35 billion tax hike. Appar-
ently alone among Republican leaders Senator

By Dr. J.D. Foster
Executive Director and
Chief Economist
Tax Foundation

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