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1 Gavin Ekins, March 2016 Taxes and Growth Model Update 1 (2016)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/martxgmu0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FOUNDAT ON BACKGROUND PAPER Mar. 2016 The Tax Foundation is the nation's leading independent tax policy research organization. Since 1937, our research, analysis, and experts have informed smarter tax policy at the federal, state, and local levels. We are a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. i2016 Tax Foundation Distributed under Creative Commons CC-BY-NC 4.0 Editor, Melodie Bowler Designer, Dan Carvajal Tax Foundation 1325 G Street, NW, Suite 950 Washington, DC 20005 202.464.6200 taxfoundation.org March 2016 Taxes and Growth Model Update By Gavin Ekins, PhD Research Economist Taxes and Growth Model Updates The Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model is constantly improved to maintain an up-to- date database of economic factors and to keep pace with new techniques from the economic modeling community. To ensure transparency with the public, the Tax Foundation institutes semi-annual updates of the TAG model. Each estimate from the TAG Model reported by the Tax Foundation identifies the version of the model being used. In general, the model updates follow the release of the Congressional Budget Office's updates to the Budget and Economic Outlook. All model analyses of tax policies after an update employ the same model version until the next release. The formalized revision schedule has two functions: consistency and quality control. One of the objectives of the TAG Model is to make it easier to compare different tax proposals. For maximum consistency when comparing proposals, the model's parameters and features should be held constant between analyses. However, for the estimates to be as accurate as possible, model changes need to be made as new data becomes available, new features are added, and new techniques are developed in the economic modeling community and incorporated in the model. The tension between maintaining consistent scores and improving the TAG Model is addressed by the semi-annual model updates and stating the version of the TAG Model used to produce an estimate. The regular update schedule provides opportunities for others in the economic modeling community to comment on the twice-yearly revisions to the TAG Model and recommend changes for the following update. Using the academic approach of public debate, the Tax Foundation hopes to enhance the accuracy of the TAG Model. The Tax Foundation welcomes constructive comments on the TAG Model and any of the following updates. Please contact ekins@taxfoundation.org with comments or questions regarding the TAG Model.

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