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103 IRET Policy Bulletin 1 (2011)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/iretpbul0062 and id is 1 raw text is: November 23, 2011
_       _       __               _No. 103
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE TAX POLICIES OF
THE GEORGE H. W. BUSH AND BILL CLINTON
ADMINISTRATIONS
Introduction
This paper estimates the long term effects of the tax policies of the George H. W. Bush and Bill
Clinton Administrations on the U.S. economy and the federal budget. The estimates project the
ultimate effects if the policies had remained in place long enough for all economic adjustments to be
made.
The tax bills of the period contained only a few changes that significantly altered production
incentives at the margin. However, those few changes would have made a difference in economic
performance. The tax changes of the Bush Administration would have trimmed GDP by about half
a percent within five
to ten years, relative
tothen evrrelit e     Chart 1    Changes in GDP Due To Tax Law Changes
have achieved absent                     During George H. W. Bush
the policy changes.                  And Bill Clinton Administrations
The tax policies of
President Clinton's                                                      1.2%
first term  would     1% ---
have    cut   1.2
percentage  points    0%
from the GDP. His                 -
second term policies  -1%   -
would have raised
GDP by about 1.2     -2%
percent. (See Chart                                  -2.1%
1 .)                  -3 %__
GHW Bush             Clinton,            Clinton,
After a brief                                 First Term         Second Term
description of the      Source: Calculations by author
theory behind the
Institute for          IRET is a non-profit, tax exempt 501(c)3 economic policy research and educational
Research                 organization devoted to informing the public about policies that will promote
on the                       economic growth and efficient operation of the market economy.
Economics of         1710 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., 11th Floor • Washington, D.C. 20036
Taxation                 (202) 463-1400 - Fax (202) 463-6199 - Internet www.iret.org

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