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50 IRET Policy Bulletin 1 (1991)

handle is hein.taxfoundation/iretpbul0010 and id is 1 raw text is: ____April 10, 1991 No. 50 THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 1992 BUDGET Introduction The complexities of federal budget concepts and accounting make it difficult to determine the effects of the President's fiscal 1992 budget proposals on federal outlays, receipts, and deficits over the next several fiscal years. After sorting through the ambiguities created by alternative budget concepts and presentations, it appears that following the spending excesses of the current fiscal year, spending growth would very substantially moderate over the fiscal years 1992-1996. With a reasonable economic recovery, the increase in revenues, with no further tax hikes, would bring the budget into near balance at the end of the 5-year projection period. Overview There are many ways to look at a federal budget. It is like a glass that is half full or half empty, depending on one's viewpoint. The view of the budget shifts depending on the measures chosen and the time frame selected. Two key measures of the budget are the baseline budget and the consolidated policy budget. Figures based on both measures are presented in the budget submission (and throughout this paper) inclusive of off-budget items, including Social Security. The off-budget accounts are as important in judging the economic consequences of the budget for the economy as the on-budget accounts, and should be included in any budget analysis. Baseline budget. The baseline budget presents estimates of government outlays and receipts for the current fiscal year (FY1991), and for the succeeding five fiscal years (FY1992-FY1996) that make up the budget period, assuming no change in current law. The outlays in the baseline budget are those established by the budget process enacted in the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 (OBRA90). If the spending targets envisioned in OBRA90 are met, total baseline spending (current law spending on all items, including off-budget items such as Social Security) would fall sharply as a share of GNP and baseline budget deficits, while very high near term, would turn into Institute for IRET is a non-profit, tax exempt 501(c)3 economic policy research and educational Research organization devoted to informing the public about policies that will promote on the economic growth and efficient operation of the market economy. Economics of 1730 K Street, N.W., Suite 910 . Washington, D.C. 20006 Taxation (202) 463-1400 * Fax (202) 463-6199 . Internet www.iret.org

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