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53 Prob. J. 5 (2006)

handle is hein.journals/probj53 and id is 1 raw text is: Probation Editorial The Journal of Community and Criminal Justice Copyright © 2006 NAPO Vol 53(1): 5-6 DOI: 10.1177/0264550506060860 www.napo.org.uk http://prb.sagepub.com Risk and blame The widely reported murder of a city banker by a man who was on a post- release licence has attracted much condemnation of the probation service by the media and some politicians. It is the kind of terrible event that every super- vising officer dreads. The details of the individual and organizational failings that led up to the killing will no doubt be laid bare by the investigation now being undertaken by the Chief Inspector of Probation. He may find cause to reflect upon the inherent limitations of risk assessment and the inevitability of some failures in actuarial and clinical assessments, especially under the exceptional workload pressures affecting some probation areas. Professional failures cannot be excused, but they should be set in context - this tragedy occurred in a probation area report- edly operating with a 15 percent staffing shortfall. Such shortages in turn make the strong relationships upon which the theory of end-to-end offender manage- ment is founded extremely unlikely. Instead, they encourage fragmented and superficial supervision, a disturbing outcome given the increasing focus on management of high risk offenders in the community. Indeed, the perpetrator in this case was reportedly supervised by a number of different probation officers in the space of a few months. The aim of good risk management is therefore under- mined not only by procedural failings, but by ground level realities and the fact that infallible risk assessment and management are impossible. This may be self evident, but it does little to prevent public intolerance of inaccurate assessments. The danger that too much faith is placed in the science of the risk assessment is powerfully illustrated by Maria Ansbro's paper 'What can we learn from Serious Incident Reports?'. The author's research shows that despite the general profi- ciency of probation officers in identifying the most dangerous offenders, some very serious incidents will occur across all risk bands. She suggests that high quality risk training should therefore extend to all supervising staff, and argues that there is a need to 'develop working relationships beyond the perfunctory and procedural'. This point is likely to have resonances for many field probation staff. Continuing the theme of risk assessment, the use of the major risk/needs tool in use in England and Wales is considered by 'The worst tax form you've ever seen? Probation officers' views about OASys', by George Mair, Lol Burke and Stuart Taylor. The authors explore the results of a national survey of probation officers' views about OASys, showing, perhaps surprisingly, that probation officers 5

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