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14 J. Res. Crime & Delinquency 1 (1977)

handle is hein.journals/jrcd14 and id is 1 raw text is: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency VOLUME 14 JANUARY 1977 NUMBER 1 Editorial Notes IT IS STILL TOO EARLY to say what the present disenchantment with the rehabilitative model in correc- tions will do to the criminal justice system. Nevertheless, the scene changes. A new cast of characters is taking the stage, and criminological research must accommodate to new assumptions and new methodologies. Economists have suddenly taken an interest in our problems, particularly those which have to do with the gen- eral deterrence of crime. The work of Ehrlich and Tullock has been given prominence in several distinguished and learned journals, but so far there has been little or no response from their colleagues in the disciplines whose interest in the crime problems is of longer standing. Because the propositions which have been ad- vanced by these writers and other economists are of obvious importance to social policy, we asked Dr. Palmer to bring together a survey of litera- ture and a guide to its assumptions. Hardly any topic in social science presents more obstacles to research than the study of deterrence. In spite of the well known and valuable work of Andenaes, Zimring and Hawkins, Gibbs, and Kobrin, it is clear that the contributions of the economists give us much more to do. We hope that thejournal can continue to provide a forum for further examination of a theory which now depends more on faith than empirical knowledge. *0* 1 If we cannot rehabilitate criminals at least we can incapacitate them. This theme runs through a consider- able amount of popular discourse about crime, notably the work of Wil- son and van den Haag. Some of the estimates of the volume of crime which can be prevented by locking up criminals might lead otherwise unin- formed policy-makers to conclude that the golden solution to the worst of our problems has been lying with- out notice at our feet all along-all we need to do is to enact stringent legis- lation providing for mandatory sen- tences. Van Dine and his colleagues have examined this estimate in a sim- ple statistical experiment which leads to a much more modest estimate of the usefulness of incapacitation policies in the prevention of violent crime. As with the conclusions of any research, there is material for debate here, and certainly these findings need replication before we can be sure of our ground so far as it goes. This research depends on the avail- ability of a great deal of data and the application of simple arithmetic to simple sentencing models. What is true of Franklin County, Ohio may be inconsistent with other major cities, but exercises of this kind should make a useful beginning to- ward the substitution of facts for as- sumptions in this area of policy- making. **s

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