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8 J. Mgmt. & Sustainability 1 (2018)

handle is hein.journals/jms8 and id is 1 raw text is: 


                                                    Journal of Management and Sustainability; Vol. 8, No. 1; 2018
                                                                         ISSN 1925-4725 E-ISSN 1925-4733
                                                         Published by Canadian Center of Science and Education


 Sea-Level Rise and Species Conservation in Bangladesh's Sundarbans

                                               Region

                     Susmita Dasgupta1, Mainul Huq1, Istiak Sobhan' & David Wheeler'
1Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, United States
2 World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, United States

Correspondence: Susmita Dasgupta, Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, United
States.


Received: November 17, 2017      Accepted: January 24, 2018  Online Published: February 3, 2018
doi: 10.5539/jms.v8nlpl     URL: https://doi.org/10.5539/jms.v8nlpl


Abstract
This paper develops a methodology for identifying high-priority species conservation areas in Bangladesh's
Sundarbans region, an UNESCO World Heritage site, considering both species vulnerability and the likelihood
of inundation by future sea-level rise (SLR). Our species vulnerability analysis develops a composite spatial
vulnerability indicator based on total species counts, endangered species counts, endemicity, and four measures
of extinction risk from the high-resolution range maps and conservation status assessments for 378 terrestrial
vertebrate species provided by IUCN Bangladesh, IUCN International and BirdLife International.
We extend the analysis by identifying areas where protection will fail if they are inundated by SLR in this
century. We project SLR by 2100 at 120 cm, near the upper bound of the current consensus, and develop digital
maps of the Sundarbans region that incorporate alternative assumptions about interim subsidence (8 cm, 35 cm)
and deposition of alluvial sediment (0 cm, 40 cm). We overlay these maps with our composite species
vulnerability map to produce SLR-risk-adjusted maps for priority assessment.
While it would be highly desirable to protect all species of Sundarbans, resource scarcity may necessitate
focusing protection on the highest-priority areas. Our analysis indicates that the highest-priority conservation
status should be assigned to Sundarbans core region that has both high species vulnerability and the lowest
likelihood of inundation in this century. We also identify other critical areas in four echelons of descending
priority, depending upon their likelihood of inundation by sea-level rise. We hope that our methodology will
contribute to cost-effective conservation management in the Sundarbans region.
Keywords: Sundarbans, biodiversity, conservation, species vulnerability, climate change, sea-level rise
1. Introduction
The Sundarbans is the largest continuous mangrove forest in the world, the majority of which (6,017 square
kilometers) lies within the boundaries of Bangladesh. The rest is in West Bengal, India. The Bangladesh part
comprises 4,143 km2 of land area and 1,874 km2 of water area. The region is known for its exceptional
biodiversity, which includes 528 species of vascular plants (Rahman et al., 2015), 38 mammals, 297 birds, 34
reptiles, 9 amphibians, and numerous species of insects, fish, crustaceans, invertebrates and molluscs, along with
diverse phytoplankton, fungi, bacteria and zooplankton (TUCN 2015). The Bangladesh Sundarbans was declared
a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1997. The area is also internationally recognized under the Ramsar
Convention.
Although the Sundarbans' ecological importance and uniqueness are recognized by Bangladesh and the
international community, and its conservation is an obligation under international conventions and treaties, the
region is currently threatened by several natural factors and human actions. The area is still in active formation
as its rivers change their course. Eastward meandering of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers over time is
affecting sedimentation and reducing freshwater inflows significantly. In addition, water supplies, sedimentation,
and the region's topography and hydrology have all been affected by human actions such as construction of
upstream dams, embankments to protect land from tides, over-exploitation of mangrove timber, urban and
industrial pollution, and mangrove clearing for agriculture and aquaculture. Local human-induced losses will
probably continue, and climate change is likely to aggravate the current problems.

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