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60 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2016)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr60 and id is 1 raw text is: Article Journal of Conflict Resolution 2016, Vol. 60(l) 3-31 KitThe Author(s) 2014 Revisiting Econom ic Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Shocks and Coups DOI: 10.,,77/002200273520531 jcr.sagepub.comn Nam Kyu Kim' SAGE Abstract This article revisits the oft-cited relationship between economic shocks and coups. According to conventional wisdom, economic recessions trigger coups. However, existing empirical studies have not consistently produced supporting evidence for that relationship. This article claims that this is partly because existing studies have not differentiated transitory from permanent shocks to the economy. Two different economic shocks could have different effects on coups. Moreover, existing studies have not sufficiently addressed measurement error in gross domestic product (GDP) data. To overcome these problems, I use exogenous rainfall and temperature variation to instrument for economic growth. Instrumental estimates demonstrate, consistently across four different GDP per capita growth measures, that a decrease in GDP per capita growth rates, induced by short-run weather shocks, significantly increases the probability of a coup attempt. Conversely, noninstrumental variable estimates vary according to different GDP measures, and are close to zero, consistent with previous findings. Keywords coups, transitory economic shocks, permanent economic shocks This article revisits the oft-cited relationship between economic shocks and coup attempts. Most scholars agree that economic downturns make a country more prone to coups (e.g., Johnson et al. 1984; Fossum 1967; Galetovic and Sanhueza 2000; iDepartment of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA Corresponding Author: Nam Kyu Kim, Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 511 Oldfather Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA. Email: namkyu@unl.edu

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