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38 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1994)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr38 and id is 1 raw text is: Integrative Complexity and British Decisions during the Munich and Polish Crises STEPHEN G. WALKER GEORGE L. WATSON Arizona State University This study addresses the impact of crisis management strategies, stress, and groupthink conditions on the integrative complexity of British decision makers in 10 decision-making episodes during two Anglo-German crises in 1938 and 1939. A systematic random sample of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's statements during British cabinet deliberations in the intragovemmental arena and British messages to Germany in the intergovernmental arena during the acute phase of each crisis was scored for integrative complexity. An ANOVA of integrative complexity for crisis, arena, and episode demonstrated a significant independent relationship between strategy and integrative complexity plus a significant interaction effect between strategy and arena on integrative complexity. There were also significant differences in Chamberlain's integrative complexity between early and later episodes of the Polish conflict in the in- tragovernmental arena; no significant differences occurred between episodes in either arena during the Munich conflict. These results support the hypotheses that associate low integrative complexity with the implementation of a competitive strategy in the intergovernmental arena and with high stress in the intragovernmental arena. In this article our goal is to compare and interpret the cognitive complexity of communications circulating within the British cabinet and emanating from the British government during the Munich and Polish crises. We focus on the relationships between the onset and duration of an international crisis and the complexity of communications articulated by government officials, plus the broader relationship between the implementation of different political strat- egies and integrative complexity (Tetlock 1985a; Suedfeld and Tetlock 1977; Raphael 1982; Wallace, Suedfeld, and Thadchuk 1993). The research also builds on earlier studies of groupthink by Janis (1982) and the relationship between groupthink and integrative complexity (Tetlock 1979; Walker and Watson 1989). JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, VoL 38 No. 1, March 1994 3-23 D 1994 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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