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32 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1988)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr32 and id is 1 raw text is: A Theory of the Behavioral Power of Nations MICHAEL D. WARD Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado LEWIS L. HOUSE US West Advance Technologies, Englewood, Colorado Nations are said to be behaviorally powerful to the extent they can influence the behavior of other nations. An analytical model of this process is developed based upon the existence of a statistical equilibrium in international political exchange, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. This formulation is empirically examined using interaction data taken from the COPDAB data bank. After presenting the static results for 132 nation-states, the behavioral power of the 10 most powerful nation-states is empirically examined and discussed over time (1948-1978) in the separate dimensions of conflict and cooperation, as well as the combined dimension of total interaction. The ability to influence multilateral politics through conflict behavior is found to be quite distinct from the ability to use cooperation as a means of influence. In late 1985, a group of self-proclaimed PLO terrorists seized an Italian luxury cruise ship, the Achille Lauro, by force. By conventional standards, these individuals, and indeed the organization to which they belong, have few of the attributes or resources of the powerful. They do not possess large-scale, sophisticated military hardware such as MIGs or F-16s; their size is minuscule in the global scale (compared, say, to China's population); their economic productivity, in an aggregate sense, is negligible. Yet-small as they were-they did have the capability to seize the Achille Lauro and set off a remarkable chain of events, involving not only the Italians and the PLO, but ultimately the United States, Algeria, and especially Egypt. The fissure in U.S.-Egyptian relations caused by this singular event continued to loom large in U.S. and Egyptian foreign policy interactions. Beyond the initial, first-order impact of the hijacking, the behavioral impact or power of that particular event may be said to have been large. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 32 No. 1, March 1988 3-36 © 1988 Sage Publications, Inc. 3 from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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