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19 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1975)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr19 and id is 1 raw text is: From Bosnia to Sarajevo A COMPARATIVE DISCUSSION OF INTERSTATE CRISES ALAN NED SABROSKY Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia This paper undertakes a comparative case study of the relationship between the onset of interstate crises and the incidence of war. Findings obtained from several different studies are integrated and extended into an analysis of changes in the major-power subsystem between the Bosnian Crisis of 1908-1909 (which was resolved without war) and the Sarajevo Crisis of 1914 (which escalated into the First World War). The outcomes of these crises are examined in the context of the changing pattern of major-power alliances, the distribution and the shift in distribution of major-power capabilities, and the pre-1914 arms race. The author finds a transformation in the major-power subsystem between 1905-1910 which significantly altered the existing European balance of power in favor of the Triple Entente. During the Sarajevo Crisis, the behavior of the decision makers on both sides reflected that transformation. The implications of these findings for conflict theory are summarized. One of the more compelling questions raised in the study of international conflict involves the relationship between the onset of crises and the incidence of war. That is, why do some crises end in war, while others do not? Social scientists of all methodological persuasions have approached this problem from a variety of theoretical and empirical perspectives. The present paper proposes to bring together several aspects of these studies and to develop them further. In it, findings on several structural and behavioral variables will be integrated into a comparative discussion of the outcomes of the two major crises preceding the First AUTHOR'S NOTE: Thanks are in order to J. David Singer, Karl W. Deutsch, Catherine M. Kelleher, Stuart A. Bremer, and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita for their helpful comments. Final responsibility, of course, is mine. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 19 No. 1, March 1975 @1975 Sage Publications, Inc. 131

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