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121 Int'l Lab. Rev. 17 (1982)
Economic Implications of Japan's Ageing Population - A Macro-Economic Demographic Modelling Approach

handle is hein.journals/intlr121 and id is 33 raw text is: International Labour Review, Vol. 121, No. 1, January-February 1982 Economic implications of Japan's ageing population A macro-economic demographic modelling approach Naohiro OGAWA* 1. Introduction Generally speaking, population ageing can be defined as the relative increase in the numbers of the elderly and the relative decrease in the numbers of the young. In Japan, this process has been unprecedentedly fast and is expected to accelerate in the next few decades. Although the ageing of the population is not yet as pronounced in Japan as in most Western European countries, it will be more or less comparable with current levels in many of these countries by the year 2000.' These developments are expected to have adverse effects on various aspects of Japan's future economy. For instance, a relative increase in the elderly will lead to a rise in the expenditure of social security programmes, such as government old-age pension schemes and medical insurance plans. In the present article, the impact of population ageing upon selected public programmes will be intensively as well as extensively analysed. First, its determinants will be examined and two alternative population projections presented, with emphasis on likely changes in the composition of the labour force. A further section will briefly describe the macro-economic demographic model to be used in the present study for various simulation experiments. The following two sections will discuss selected simulation findings, and the paper will conclude with some observations on implications for future policy. 2. Nature of the ageing of the Japanese population and its future trends A. Past demographic changes and determinants of population ageing In 1950 there were 4.9 persons aged 65 and over per 100 persons. This proportion increased to 5.8 per cent in 1960, 7.1 per cent in 1970 and 9.0 per * Associate Professor, College of Economics, and Deputy Director, Population Research Institute, Nihon University, Tokyo. Copyright © International Labour Organisation 1982

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