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60 Indus. & Lab. Rel. Rev. 522 (2006-2007)
The Economic Effects of a Citywide Minimum Wage

handle is hein.journals/ialrr60 and id is 522 raw text is: THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF A CITYWIDE MINIMUM WAGE
ARINDRAJIT DUBE, SURESH NAIDU, and MICHAEL REICH*
This paper presents the first study of the economic effects of a citywide minimum
wage-San Francisco's adoption of an indexed minimum wage, set at $8.50 in 2004 and
$9.14 by 2007. Compared to earlier benchmark studies by Card and Krueger and by
Neumark and Wascher, this study surveys table-service as well as fast-food restaurants,
includes more control groups, and collects data for more outcomes. The authors find
that the policy increased worker pay and compressed wage inequality, but did not
create any detectable employment loss among affected restaurants. The authors also
find smaller amounts of measurement error than characterized the earlier studies, and
so they can reject previous negative employment estimates with greater confidence.
Fast-food and table-service restaurants responded differently to the policy, with a small
price increase and substantial increases in job tenure and in the proportion of full-time
workers among fast-food restaurants, but not among table-service restaurants.

n November 2003 San Francisco vot-
ers passed a ballot proposition to enact
a minimum wage covering all employers in
the city. The new standard set a minimum
wage of $8.50 per hour-an increase of over
26% above the California minimum wage of
$6.75-and an annual adjustment for cost-
of-living increases (reaching $9.14 in 2007).
This standard, which first became effective
in late February 2004, constituted the high-
est minimum wage in the United States and
the first implemented municipal minimum
wage in a major city (excluding the District
of Columbia). In a prospective study of this
policy, Reich and Laitinen (2003) estimated
that about 54,000 workers, amounting to
*Arindrajit Dube is a Research Economist at the
Institute for Research on Labor and Employment
(IRLE), University of California, Berkeley; Suresh Naidu
is a graduate student researcher at IRLE; and Michael
Reich is Professor of Economics and Director of IRLE.
The authors thank Eric Freeman, Amy Vassalotti, Gina
Vickery, and Steven Wertheim for excellent research
assistance and the Rockefeller and Russell Sage Foun-
dations for their support. They received helpful com-
ments from Orley Ashenfelter, Jared Bernstein, David

10.6% of the city's work force, would receive
wage increases, either directly or indirectly, if
such a policy were adopted, and that the in-
creased wage costs on average would amount
to about 1% of business operating costs.
Simple trends from county-level QCEW
administrative data comparing San Francisco
with nearbyAlameda County suggest that the
policy did increase pay, and moreover did so
without affecting employment. Figures l and
2 present these comparisons for restaurants,
the industrywith the greatest proportion and
absolute number of minimum wage workers.
In the years prior to the enactment of the San
Francisco policy, restaurant pay and employ-
mentin these two geographic areas exhibited
quite similar trends. After the policy was
Card, and seminar participants at U.C.-Berkeley and
at the Labor and Employment Relations Association
annual meeting, where earlier versions of this paper
were presented.
The authors will supply the data used in this study
to others upon request. Contact them at Institute for
Research on Labor and Employment, University of
California, Berkeley, CA 94720-5555.

Industrial and Labor Relations Reuiew, Vol. 60, No. 4 (July 2007). © by Cornell University.
0019-7939/00/6004 $01.00

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