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53 How. J. Crim. Just. 1 (2014)

handle is hein.journals/hjcj53 and id is 1 raw text is: The Howard journal Vol 53 No 1. February 2014 DOI: 10.1111/hojo.12035 ISSN 0265-5527, pp. 1-15 A Future for Probation? JOHN DEERING Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Criminal justice, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of South Wales Abstract: The probation service in England and Wales faces what is the greatest challenge in its history. It is currently facing a future which is being shaped by four competing and differing forces: its current case management approach as influenced by moves to more law-enforcement practices; theories of desistance; new developments in offender engagement; and the emergence of Payment by Results (PbR). The article considers each of these influences and discusses how important they may be to the future of probation practice, concluding that the future of the service may be unrecognisable from anything that has gone before. Keywords: probation; future; practice; competition Over the past 20 to 30 years, the probation service in England and Wales has been under constant pressure from government to change both its culture and practices. It has always pragmatically adapted or conformed (Senior, Crowther-Dowey and Long 2007) whilst managing to retain a measure of its original identity, although some have argued that it has moved so far from its original core purposes that it, in effect, no longer exists (Mantle 2006). However, due to recent theoretical and political developments, it may be faced with its greatest challenge yet. Can it reconcile the 'rehabilitation revolution' and Payment by Results (PbR), contestability, market models and offender 'management' with the growing recognition of the importance of a professional relationship to effective probation practice? What might be the challenges presented by the emergence of desistance theories, which emphasise a collaborative approach to supervision, rather than the more directive, law-enforcement approaches of recent decades? This article sets out a brief history of the service, then examines what I consider to be the various political, theoretical and practice influences operating on it at the moment (above) arguing that these are ultimately irreconcilable. Following this, I conclude that the future of the service is 'unknowable' at present but is highly unlikely to resemble the status quo. The central argument presented is that whilst some current professional developments hold out the hope of a continuing humanistic practice, the current intentions of the coalition government for the service suggest a 1 0 2013 The Author The Howard Journal of Criminaljustice C 2013 The Howard League and John Wiley & Sons Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons LId, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK

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