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51 Comp. Pol. Stud. 3 (2018)

handle is hein.journals/compls51 and id is 1 raw text is: Article Comparative Political Studies 2018, Vol. 5 1(1) 3-37 Regime and Leader @ The Author(s) 2017 Reprints and permissions: nstability U d T sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0010414016688009 F orms of liitary Rule journals.sagepub.com/home/cps OSAGE Nam Kyu Kim2 and Alex M. Kroeger' Abstract The finding that military regimes are more fragile than other authoritarian regimes represents one of the few stylized facts in comparative politics. However, the existing literature contains substantial differences in the theoretical explanations for military regime instability and operationalizations of military rule. To assess competing explanations, we examine regime and leader instability after distinguishing between collegial and personalist military rule. We show that regime and leader insecurity characterize only collegial military regimes. Particularly, the fragility of collegial military regimes comes from a heightened likelihood of democratization, not more frequent transitions to alternative autocratic regimes. In addition, leaders of collegial military regimes face higher risks of both regular and irregular turnovers than other autocrats. Also, irregular exits of collegial military leaders tend to occur through reshuffling, rather than regime-changing, coups. The results strongly support theories focusing on military officers' preference for unity over other explanations. Keywords democratization and regime change, nondemocratic regimes, military and politics 'University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA 2Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, South Korea Corresponding Author: Nam Kyu Kim, Department of Political Science & Diplomacy, Sungkyunkwan University, 53 Myeongnyun-dong 3-ga, Jongno-gu, Seoul 110-745, South Korea. Email: namkkim I @gmail.com

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