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19 Chap. L. Rev. 35 (2016)
The Differential Effects of Initiatives and Referenda on Voter Turnout in the United States, 1890-2008

handle is hein.journals/chlr19 and id is 47 raw text is: The Differential Effects of Initiatives and Referenda on Voter Turnout in the United States, 1890-2008 Matt Childers & Mike Binder* INTRODUCTION A number of studies show that statewide ballot propositions increase voter turnout, but almost all of them focus on the citizen initiative. In this Article, we use a historical dataset with elections and census data dating back to 1890 to examine whether popular and legislative referenda also affect turnout. We also compare how they affect turnout compared to the citizen initiative. Like previous studies, we find that ballot propositions fail to significantly affect turnout in presidential elections over time, but do so during midterm elections.1 Initiative races, both competitive and less competitive ones, increase turnout more than competitive legislative referenda, while uncompetitive legislative referenda and popular referenda do not affect turnout. In their efforts to uncover the determinants of political participation, scholars often focus on individual-level factors like race, education, income, or age,2 and external factors like campaigns and electoral institutions.3 Under the umbrella of the latter, students of direct democracy find that ballot propositions can draw voters to the polls. While they offer differing explanations for the causal mechanisms for how ballot questions draw more voters to the polls, they agree that turnout is higher when states have initiatives on the ballot.4 * Matt Childers and Mike Binder are Assistant Professors of Political Science at University of North Florida. 1 See Matt Childers & Mike Binder, Engaged by the Initiative? How the Use of Citizen Initiatives Increases Voter Turnout, 65 POL. RES. Q. 93, 93-103 (2012). 2 See generally STEVEN ROSENSTONE & JOHN HANSEN, MOBILIZATION, PARTICIPATION AND DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA (Bruce Nichols & Robert Miller eds., 1993). 3 See Gary C. Jacobson, How Do Campaigns Matter?, 18 ANN. REV. POLIT. SCI. 31, 38-39 (2015) (discussing political science research on how campaigns affect voter turnout). See generally Andr6 Blais, What Affects Voter Turnout?, 9 ANN. REV. POLIT. SCi. l11, 111-25 (2006) (demonstrating how institutions affect voter turnout across multiple democracies). 4 See Childers & Binder, supra note 1; Daniel Schlozman & Ian Yohai, How Initiatives Don't Always Make Citizens: Ballot Initiatives in the American States, 1978-2004, 30 POL. BERAV. 469 (2008); Mark A. Smith, The Contingent Effects of Ballot

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