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1 Garen Wintemute, Predicting Criminal Behavior among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns 1 (1998)

handle is hein.gun/predcbuhg0001 and id is 1 raw text is: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice -National Institute of Justice N1JCDCeNaionastitoterof Justire \L_1_ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention R e search Prev ew April 1998 Jeremy Travis, Director Predicting Criminal Behavior Among Authorized Purchasers of Handguns Summary of a Presentation by Garen fintemute, University of California-Davis According to National Crime Victimization Survey data, approximately 1.2 million violent crimes were committed with a firearm in 1995. As one of many efforts to reduce violent crime, the Gun Control Act of 1968 bars specific groups of people from purchasing (or otherwise acquir- ing) firearms. The proscribed list includes those who have had a prior felony conviction or are under felony indictment, those who are addicted to narcotics, and those who are mentally ill. However, despite these denial criteria, most individuals known to have engaged in prior criminal activity are still able to purchase guns legally. For example, of the approximately 172,000 people who legally purchased a handgun in California in 1977, about 15 percent had a criminal record at the time of purchase. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention supported a recent study conducted by the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California-Davis that sought to identify better ways to predict the incidence of criminal activity among people who purchase handguns legally. Such information could be useful in further restrict- ing access to guns by people who are at high risk for engaging in criminal activity. Study design Using data from the State of California's automated handgun purchase files, the researchers designed a longitudinal study of people 50 years old and younger who legally purchased a handgun in California in 1977. They accessed the State's criminal history records for the next 15 years (through 1991) to compare the crimi- nal activity of two groups-those who had a criminal history at the time of the purchase (approximately 6,800 people) and those who did not (approximately 2,800 people). The size of each group was determined by the researchers to maximize statistical power. Most legal handgun purchasers in California have no criminal history at the time of purchase, even though the relative size of the samples suggests otherwise. The researchers calculated how much more likely members of the group with a criminal history were to commit a crime than were members of the group without a criminal history (relative risk). They then identified and compared subgroups to isolate factors that might point to an increased risk of future criminal activity. These measures were controlled for intergroup differ- ences in age, gender, and race or ethnicity. Possible risk factors for criminal activity Within 1 year of their handgun purchase, 13 percent of the criminal history group had been arrested for a new offense, compared with less than 2 percent of the group with no criminal history at the time of the purchase. By 15 years after the handgun purchase, almost 38 percent of the criminal history group had been arrested for a new offense, compared with less than 10 percent of the group with no criminal history. Overall, the adjusted relative risk was 3.7; that is, handgun purchasers with a criminal history at the time of the purchase were 3.7 times more likely to be charged with a subsequent offense than were purchasers with no criminal history. The researchers examined the data in several ways. Contrary to their expectations, the relative risk of a new Research in Progress Seminar Series L1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I a I 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 a

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