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GAO-19-640R 1 (2019-09-10)

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GAO U.S. GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE
441 G St. N.W.
Washington, DC 20548



September 10, 2019

Congressional Committees

Department of Homeland Security: Review of Report on Agency Estimates of Foreign
Nationals Unlawfully Residing in the U.S.

Under U.S. immigration law, there are various types of immigration benefits that provide lawful
immigration status or presence in the United States on a temporary or permanent basis. Foreign
nationals in the United States without valid immigration status or protection are unlawfully
present. Information about the size and composition of the unlawfully present population can
help inform immigration and border security-related policy decisions. The Department of
Homeland Security's (DHS) Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS) has the primary responsibility
for collecting and disseminating statistical information and analysis used in evaluating the
impacts of immigration laws, migration flows, and immigration enforcement.1 Such data includes
information on the overall population of foreign nationals in the United States and the number of
such foreign nationals who are unlawfully present, among other data. DHS must submit to
Congress annually a report containing information required by statute, including an analysis of
trends in immigration and naturalization.2 OIS addresses the requirement to estimate the
unlawfully present population by publishing annual estimates of the population of foreign-born
individuals unlawfully residing in the United States, most recently in December 2018.3

DHS uses a residual estimation methodology to estimate the foreign-born population unlawfully
residing in the United States. DHS's residual method consists of subtracting the estimated
legally resident foreign-born population-calculated using DHS administrative records-from the
estimated total foreign-born population-obtained from the American Community Survey
administered by the U.S. Census Bureau-as shown in figure 1. This results in the residual of
the unlawfully resident population. In its December 2018 report, DHS estimated the size of the
unlawfully resident population was 11.96 million as of January 1, 2015.





1Immigration and Nationality Act, Pub. L. No. 82-414, tit. I, § 103(d), 66 Stat. 163, 173-4 (1952) (classified, as
amended, at 8 U.S.C. § 1103(d)).
28 U.S.C. § 1103(e).

3DHS bases its annual estimate, in part, on data collected in the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S.
Census Bureau, which is sent to residences and captures information on individuals and households living in the
United States. As a result, DHS's estimate of the unlawfully present population focuses on the population unlawfully
residing in the United States, and does not include those it describes as unlawfully present non-residents (e.g.
tourists who briefly stayed longer than their visas allowed). For the purposes of this report, we use the term
unlawfully resident population in reference to the population on which DHS bases its efforts to respond to the
requirement that it estimate the unlawfully present population. DHS 0IS, Population Estimates - Illegal Alien
Population Residing in the United States: January 2015 (December 2018).


GAO-1 9-640R Unlawfully Resident Population Estimates


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