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116833 1 (1981-11-02)

handle is hein.gao/gaobacuzn0001 and id is 1 raw text is: /q75 PROGRAM EVALUATION FOR THE 80's: DOING WITH LESS EFFECTIVELY (Panel on Evaluation and Cost-Benefit Analysis at the Symposium of Washington Operations Research/Management Science Council, Washington D.C., November 2, 1981) by Keith E. Marvin, Special Assistant to the Assistant Comptroller General for Program Evaluation, U.S. General Accounting Office It is clear that major changes are coming in the Federal government's involvement in many facets of our economy and our society. Fast growth in Federal programs will be exceptions. Most programs will be doing well to hold their own and many will evalluation be cut or dropped. Program/became a function in nearly all Federal departments and many of the agencies during earlier growth phases of many of these programs. Since program evaluation is a support service to management and oversight officials, it will need to adjust to these new conditions to survive. Looking at the future of programs or their evaluation function is for most of us like driving in a heavy fog. We feel there is a road out there but we can't see the curves, hills and valleys very clearly. In this fuzzy context, I do have some comments on some of the sign posts I expect to see coming out of the fog. Although no one seems to have a precise accounting for evaluation expenditures by the Federal government, and even less for state expenditures in total, we have some feel for it. Various-surveys by the Office of Management and Budget(OMB) and GAO showed rapid growth in Federal expenditures in the early 70'sto about $250 million annually by the mid 70's for non-defense departments and agencies. The most recent survey

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