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PAD-78-52 1 (1978-04-10)

handle is hein.gao/gaobacjgq0001 and id is 1 raw text is: 




DOCUMNT L'SUNZ


05905 - [B1025966]

Conrail*s Profitability: Framework for Analysis. PAD-78-52.
April 10, 1976. 17 pp. + 2 appendices (5 pp.).

Staff study by Hrrry S. Havens, Director, Program Analysis Div.

Issue Area: Program and budget Infornaticu for Congressicnal Use
     (3q00).
 Contact: Program Analysis Div,
 Budget Function: Commerce and transpctticn: Ground
     Transportation (404).
 Organization Concerned: Department of Tran4portation; Interstate
     Commerce Commission; United States Railway Association;
     Consolidated Bail Corp.
 Conqressional Relevance: House Committee on Interstate and
     Foreign -'omaerce; Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and
     Transportation.
 Authority: Regional Rail Reorganizaticn Act of 1973. Railroad
     Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976.

          When the Consolidated ltail Corporation (Conrail) tegan
 operations in April 1976, finantital projections made by the
 United States Railway Associatiorn (USIA) ascu.ed that the $2.026
 billion appropriated for Federal loans and purchases of stcck
 would be all of the Federal financial assistance that the
 railroad would need. USDA's Final System Plan (ESP), prepazed as
 a basis for Federal funding decisionc, forecast that the
 railroad would become profitable in 1979. Information about
 Conrail's current operations were compared with the forecasts
 developed when Federal funding decisics were being made;
 experience to date was compared with ESP projections of: output
 and inflation in the economy as a whole; tonnage carried by
 Conrail; total Conrail revenues, expenses, and deficits; and
 Conrail friight revenues and expenses per ton.
 Findings/Conclusions: The ESP projections depended on two
 fundamental assumptions: (1) Conrail would maintain traffic
 until 1979 while the infusion of Federal funds permits repair
 and renovation of the ph'sical plant; and (;) while repairing
 and renovating the physical plant, Conrail would reduce the rate
 of increase in unit costs below the rate of increase in the
 Consumer Price Index. Actual Conrail. erformance has been
 different from that forecast. Losses in 1977 were larger than in
 1976 rather than smaller; tons of freight carried by Conrail
 were 'elow projections although the national economy has
 performed better than expected; and increases in costs per ton
 carried have been much more than forecast. Unless changes occur
 in current revenues and unit costs, the Conrail system, as
currently designed, will not become profitable. (IRS).

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